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International Report

Administration Split On Europe Invasion


by Rand Simberg
September 23, 2002

(Editor’s Note: This article, written in 2002, is satire. Some readers, who have seen it elsewhere, mistake it for an actual news story circa 1944. It is not, but the analogy is valid.)

Washington, April 3, 1944 (Routers)

Fissures are starting to appear in the formerly united front within the Roosevelt administration on the upcoming decision of whether, where and how to invade Europe. Some influential voices within both the Democrat and Republican parties are starting to question the wisdom of toppling Adolf Hitler's regime, and potentially destabilizing much of the region.

"It's one thing to liberate France and northwestern Europe, and teach the Germans a lesson, but invading a sovereign country and overthrowing its democratically-elected ruler would require a great deal more justification," said one well-connected former State Department official. "The President just hasn't made the case to the American people."

Indeed, some are querulous at the notion of invading France itself.

They argue, correctly, that the German-French Armistice of 1940 is a valid international treaty, and the Vichy government is widely recognized as the legitimate government of France, including by the US. (The British government doesn't, but much of that is a result of antipathy to the Germans from the Blitz.)

Under this reading, German forces are thus legally stationed in France, per the request of its government, and by all observable indications, the Vichy government is supported by the "French street." More Frenchmen serve voluntarily in the Vichy militias than join the "underground" organizations supported by foreign intelligence services like MI5 and OSS.

It was pointed out to this reporter by a prominent former US ambassador to France that, "President Pétain was legally appointed by the last freely elected government of the Third Republic, and therefore is the legitimate democratically-chosen head of state. He has been governing by emergency decree under the appropriate provisions of the Third Republic Constitution. Surely there are grave issues of international law in any aggressive act against France."

In addition, some have proposed that, once the Russians take back Poland, it might make sense for them to stop at the German border. They argue that much, if not most, of Hitler's war-making capacity has been destroyed by the Allied bombing, and after we've taken back the Benelux countries, he'll only be a threat to his own people, and the ethnic minorities within Germany itself.

Others, however, contend that as long as he remains in power, he will be a continual threat to the region, and perhaps even the world, as there are rumors that he's frantically developing weapons of mass destruction greater than any the world has previously seen, and is building rockets with which to deliver them.

"For God's sake, the man is gassing Jews by the millions!" said one exasperated presidential advisor. "Do you think that he's going to be content to simply murder his own people if we let him stay in power?"

Concern is great that, in a total German defeat, or regime change, the results could have unpredictable and far-reaching consequences. Germany consists of a large number of ethnic groups antipathetic to each other, including Germans, Jews, Bohemians, Slavs and Gypsies. In the power vacuum created by the absence of a strong and stable central government, there is concern that it could split up into a number of fractious, balkanized countries, with the potential for renewed war and strife on European soil.

There has been little public discussion of what kind of government would replace the present Nazi reich, and many believe that, in the absence of a plan, it would be foolish to simply go in and topple the dictator.

The Administration has reportedly been talking to German dissidents, but they're hardly united in anything other than a desire to see the end of the Hitler regime. Many who know them well feel that there's little prospect for them forming a post-war consensus German government.

Others say, however, that the German people are well educated, and that if the shackles of the brutal regime that currently oppresses them could be thrown off, there are excellent prospects for one that would be friendly to the US and western values in general. Such a government, in a region in which it is so dominant, could provide a healthy example for the populace in some of the other troubled regimes in the area.

But despite such optimism among some advisors, many, particularly in Congress, are also frustrated by an apparent lack of an exit strategy. There is a great deal of concern, both within and outside the Administration, that should the German government be replaced, US troops might have to be stationed in Europe for five to ten years. Some have even suggested, improbably, that they could end up being there for decades.

One Senator who has been deeply involved in the discussions within the Administration said, off the record, that "we can't risk the chaos that could result from Hitler's removal. He's the only thing holding Germany together."

"Once we get into Alsace, and the Russians cross the Vistula, what we need to do is to establish a truce with him, and set up an arms inspection regime, so that he will never again be able to threaten his neighbors."

"We'll let the new planned United Nations organization handle it."

(Copyright 2002 by Rand Simberg), www.interglobal.org/weblog

A letter from Africa

SITREP 16th September 2002

KAROI

There are still two farmers barricaded into their homesteads in the Karoi/Tengwe area. Andy Kockott, after having achieved a peaceful resolution with his labour yesterday, is today once more under siege as the war veterans who had abandoned his farm have returned to incite trouble. He and his wife are currently locked into the house, and the electricity and water supplies to the house have been cut off from the outside. The labour have renewed their demands for retrenchment packages, notwithstanding the lack of a Section 8 order on the farm.

Another farmer, Tom High, is also currently prevented from leaving his property, and although the besieging group have not resorted to violence, he has not been allowed to leave the premises since Friday afternoon. The other cases of barricading in this area have been dissipated without violence.

Neighbours have confirmed that Zebra Downs Farm, belonging to Chris Bishop, is being systematically looted by the 50 settlers who are resident on the farm. The grain store was broken into last week, and some ten tonnes of maize destined as food for the labourers was stolen. Both the farm houses have been moved into by war veterans, as has the farm workshop complex, and there are reports some of the remaining 150 cattle on the farm being sold off. Chris Bishop has not received a Section 8 order, but has been unable to return to his farm for over a week.

CONCESSION

CHIREDZI

The thirteen farmers arrested in this area last week and over the weekend were brought before a magistrate today. The ZRP presented a case that they had failed to apply for an extension to their Section 8 orders. The magistrate found that this was not a viable charge, and ordered that they be released, whereupon the ZRP announced that were this done, the farmers would be immediately returned to prison. The court recessed for lunch to allow the ZRP to consolidate and present another charge, but when they failed to do so, the prisoners were released. For two days there were between 21 and 24 people cramped into a cell measuring 4m by 6m, and there were insufficient blankets for them too keep warm, despite the crowding. This is a classic case of harassment, since the arrest was on a spurious charge, and they were released without bail shortly thereafter.

MATABELELAND

A farmer in the Bembesi District was arrested today whilst attending a Lands Committee meeting. Neil Fletcher, of Zimbile Farm, was taken from the meeting to prison, although no charges were proffered at the time. He is currently on bail from a previous arrest in connection with a Section 8 order, the conditions of which allowed him back on the farm, and remanded him until the 7th of November. No further details are known.



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