August 5, 2002
Media polls are polls that are conducted by the media themselves as opposed to polls commissioned by companies or political parties. When non-media organizations commission private polls, they have an interest in ensuring that the polls are accurate. What companies and political parties want from the polls, is the truth. Not so with the media; they want a good story. There are several ways that the media can manipulate the polls that they take in order to get the results that would make the best story.
One aspect of media polling that readers of polls should be aware of is that polls are practically meaningless unless the reader knows what questions the pollster puts to the respondents. What does a poll result that says 90% of respondents favour more help for the homeless, mean? Nothing. Giving more help for the homeless costs money, a fact that is left out of the above question. The result of the poll would be less if the question were to ask, "Are you in favour of giving more help to the homeless if it meant an increase of 5 per cent in property taxes (or an increase in income taxes)?" The more detailed the question, the more likely the accuracy of the poll. But when readers are not told what the question is, the poll loses any meaning it might have had.
Even when questions are given, the pool of those polled is not always described or made clear. In media polls, are people chosen randomly or are they from a pool of eligible voters or likely voters? What questions were put to respondents to decide if they are likely to vote or not? If someone hasn’t voted in the last 20 years, their choice of who they won’t vote for in the next election is not as informative as if gained from someone who will likely vote.
Another way polls are manipulated is by the phrasing of the questions. The question, "Do you think Jean Chrétien, who led the Liberals to victory by winning three majority governments, should stay on for a fourth election?" will get a different response than, "Do you think it is time for Jean Chrétien, who is in his late 60s should give up his leadership?" Some people tend to give the answer that they think the questioner is looking for.
The timing of media polls also affects their validity. When many major news stories break the media take a quick poll and print or broadcast the results quickly. In some cases, distorted results can come from people who are caught up in the emotion of a situation. Fewer New Yorkers would now say that they are afraid to go into office towers than would have given a positive response on September 12.
The structure and timing of media polls, are significant.
"When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean-neither more nor less."
Humpty Dumpty
Through the Looking-Glass
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