Canada Free Press -- ARCHIVES

Because without America, there is no free world.

Return to Canada Free Press

Politically Incorrect

Ontario--Can the Tories Win Again?

by Arthur Weinreb

November 4, 2002

The recent Progressive Conservative convention marked the start of the campaign for the next provincial election, expected next spring or fall. Premier Ernie Eves came out swinging against Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty, accusing him of being on all sides of every issue. The good news is that Eves is right. The bad news is that Ernie agrees with almost everything McGuinty says.

Since Ernie Eves won the leadership of the Tories last March, the party has been on the defensive on issues raised by the opposition from Walkerton to hydro privatization to former high flying cabinet minister Cam Jackson’s expenses. And elections can’t be won on defence. Eves had quit politics and was firmly ensconced on Bay Street. He didn’t seek a political comeback to carry out a vision or for any ideological reason. He only returned when he was convinced that if he ran for the leadership he could win and become premier. People who enter (or return to) politics for that reason are the ones who want to be liked and strive to be all things to all people. Former leaders who fall into this category are Brian Mulroney and Bill Clinton. Although Mulroney and Clinton wanted to lead their respective countries since they were toddlers, and Eves had to be talked into running after polls showed that he could win, the principles are the same.

In order for a leader to be loved and be all things to all people, it is necessary to be in or move to the middle. For some reason, when those on the left move to the centre they can be successful while when right-leaning leaders and parties go to the centre they self destruct. Look at what has happened in the 1990s. In the early 1990s, Ross Perot ran as an independent candidate for U.S. president and discovered the deficit. Everyone knew the deficit was there but no one paid any attention to it until "the little hand grenade with ears" made a big deal out of it. Perot started a shift to the right in the United States that led to the election of a Republican congress in 1994. The liberal Bill Clinton won a resounding victory in 1996 when he moved to the right, labeled himself as a "New Democrat" and promised to end "welfare as we know it."

In Canada, when the Natural Governing Party returned to power in 1993, they too shifted to the centre. Devoid of policies of their own, the Liberals, who for years had been stealing policies from the NDP and watering them down, now were doing the same thing with the policies of the Reform and Canadian Alliance Party. The tax and spend Liberals balanced the budget, reduced the debt, announced tax cuts and were rewarded with three successive majority governments.

Conservative governments on the other hand are most successful when they stick to their conservative principles. Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were both highly popular. Thatcher was succeeded by John Major who rejected Thatcherism and was soundly trounced by Tony Blair’s Labour Party in 1997. George H.W. "read my lips, no tax increases" Bush raised taxes and became a one-termer.

In Canada, the governments in Alberta under Ralph Klein and in Ontario led by Mike Harris were highly successful. Klein has never had a problem getting re-elected. And despite the hooting and the hollering and the screaming and the yelling by the lefties, decrying the Common Sense Revolution during Mike Harris’s first term, the Tory leader won another majority government in 1999. Leaders who have been true to their conservative principles (Thatcher, Reagan, Klein, Harris) have come out as winners thanks to the large number of silent conservative supporters.

Unless Dalton McGuinty does something really dumb during the upcoming campaign, like his predecessors David Peterson did in 1990 and Lyn Mcleod in 1995, Eves and his band of now Red Tories will not win the next election. The move to the centre and away from the Common Sense Revolution will not attract voters who were upset at the way the Harris government ran things and will turn off those who genuinely supported the Common Sense Revolution. To paraphrase the National Post’s Andrew Coyne, who paraphrased W.H. Auden:

"This is the way the Tories will end

not with a bang, but with a Witmer."

Arthur Weinreb is a lawyer and author and Associate Editor of Canadafreepress.com, he can be reached at: aweinreb@interlog.com



Pursuant to Title 17 U.S.C. 107, other copyrighted work is provided for educational purposes, research, critical comment, or debate without profit or payment. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for your own purposes beyond the 'fair use' exception, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Views are those of authors and not necessarily those of Canada Free Press. Content is Copyright 1997-2018 the individual authors. Site Copyright 1997-2018 Canada Free Press.Com Privacy Statement