By Dan Calabrese ——Bio and Archives--October 27, 2015
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You've heard this one before and you're about to hear it again. Congressional Republicans make a deal with President Obama that ostensibly cuts federal spending. That's what the headlines will proclaim. But in reality, the budget deal - which in this case looks to be in effect for two years - will raise spending in the short term and save all the supposed cuts for the "out years." Ever wonder when those "out years" are going to arrive? Ha! We'll have hoverboards first. Real ones. But for now we've got something that will allow John Boehner to get out of town while proudly declaring to the media that he avoided a debt ceiling showdown.
That's all this is good for, and that ain't much:The final amount of the spending increases has not been finalized, nor have the spending offsets and aides warned the deal could change substantially depending on how members respond. The proposal being negotiated would set the top-line spending numbers and give the House and Senate Appropriations Committees until Dec. 11 to decide how it should be parceled out among federal agencies and programs. There is no guarantee that the spending cuts will be sufficient to convince wary Republicans to vote for the spending bill and an increase in the borrowing limit ahead of the upcoming Nov. 3 deadline. Many conservatives have said they will not vote for any debt limit increase without corresponding spending cuts, a proposal that has been a non-starter for the White House. Aides said the deal also would likely include new rules for the Social Security Disability Insurance fund, which is expected to run out of funds by the end of 2016. Discussions have also included maintaining a 2 percent cut to Medicare provider payments that were included in the 2011 Budget Control Act, also known as the sequester. Those cuts could be problematic for Democrats who have insisted that there be no changes to Medicare or Social Security in a budget deal.So the House Freedom Caucus is fit to be tied, and they're going to do everything they can to stop this, right? Ha! Jokes on you!
Leaders of the U.S. House of Representatives' most influential conservative group told Reuters on Monday it was too late to stop an extension of the federal debt ceiling this week, but they will not hold it against the expected next House Speaker, Paul Ryan. Representatives Mark Meadows, Jim Jordan and Mick Mulvaney, founders of the hard-right Freedom Caucus, told Reuters in an interview that there was not enough time for House Republicans to rally around a list of demands for raising the $18.1 trillion U.S. borrowing limit. Outgoing House Speaker John Boehner is working with Democratic and Republican congressional leaders to finalize terms of an extension of federal borrowing authority through March 2017 along with a $112 billion deal to ease military and domestic spending caps for two years, according to House and Senate aides and lawmakers. "To make any kind of meaningful longer-term strategy ... I think it is too late," Meadows said of the current Nov. 3 deadline to lift the debt limit. "So I don't see that as something that happens this time, but I do see that potentially in all future debt ceiling negotiations." The three lawmakers said they wanted to work with Ryan on process reforms that would allow them to get a much earlier start on future fiscal deadlines to demand spending cuts and reforms to federal benefits programs such as Social Security and Medicare. This way, they would not be trying to craft a strategy at the last minute with default or government shutdowns looming in the balance.Most of this is PR. The Republicans don't want Ryan to take over the speakership on day one with a debt ceiling showdown looming, because they figure it's the media's opportunity to tar him right off the bat as a guy who's willing to drive the government into default to score ideological points. (That's BS, of course. Keeping the debt ceiling where it is does not require a default. It requires decisions to be made in order to make the debt payments.) Everyone seems to figure it's best to get a budget deal in place, let Boehner be the one who's connected to it, then send him on his way and let Ryan start fresh without a huge game of chicken looming immediately. Unfortunately the only way to get a deal like that is to pretty much give Obama whatever he wants, which means sequestration is eased in the short term and everyone pretends they're going to cut entitlement spending at some point down the road - before which there's plenty of time to tear that up in favor of a new "long-term budget deal". It's the same charade they always put on when they announce budget deals. Maybe Ryan will manage to accomplish something better, but he'll have to overcome an awful lot of institutional inertia to do it.
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Dan Calabrese’s column is distributed by HermanCain.com, which can be found at HermanCain
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