Nuclear negotiations between P5+1 countries and Iran have ceased for the time being. The talks passed its second deadline, while some aftermath talks, between undersecretaries, were continued later in December. A new deadline was set for June. The news of Iran’s atomic programs has now depreciated from the top news.
Browsing into Iran’s social and political life gives us a different, rather obscure picture. Conflicting voices originate from within the government; some persist on maintaining atomic talks, while others are angry at Rouhani administration’s “too much kneeling” to the west, in particular to the US. In the west, some politicians are calling for tougher actions and even a regime change in Iran, while some are still looking for pen pals inside the regime. Iranian people, themselves frustrated with their many social and economic grievances, are craving for a regime change. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, keeps recapping his advice that in any situation, “the first priority is to maintain the state power.” Iranian populations whose democratic rights are ignored by the regime, however, are certain that “the first priority is to overthrow the state power”. The disagreement is only on one word of the sentence.
Negotiations between representatives of P5+1 countries and the Iranian regime reached their deadline in November without yielding any agreement. The talks in Oman marked the end of twelve years of numerous rounds of negotiations between the two. Responses on both sides showed just ambiguity .US Secretary of State John Kerry branded the Oman negotiations as closed, saying, “We will not speak about the talks in the days to follow.” Inside Iran a pro Khamenei MP said, “We still don’t know what has been agreed to in the talks . . . our centrifuges don’t run now and Mr. Rouhani refers us to hell.” Keyhan, a newspaper that reflects the views of Iran’s supreme leader, in its November 23 editorial concluded that “after almost 13 years of ‘nuclear challenge’ reaching an agreement that ends this challenge, not only is far from expectation but it is, rather, impossible.” One Keyhan columnist recounted about an answer he gave the same day to a question asked by a German reporter from Germany’s ZDF TV channel that “the negotiations are pretended to be about nuclear activities but they follow other goals.” The newspaper added, “US and European representatives’ are apparently on negotiation table, but their concerns prowl over Lebanon, Palestine, Syria , Iraq , Egypt , Saudi Arabia, Latin America, ...”
Failure to accede to an agreement after one year of intense negotiations reflects two significant messages. First is that the Mullahs regime in Iran is so fragile that makes it unable to abandon its atomic project despite all the concessions offered by the west. This weakness has augmented since Iran’s number one ally in the region, Nouri Al Maleki, was forced to quit power. Acquiring nuclear weapons is an essential need for Khamenei to stay in power.
The second message reveals the failure of the long term policy of appeasing the Iranian regime, a policy that, in essence, disregards the Security Council resolutions, and, of course, the interests of the Iranian people. Appeasement, a long and toilsome tilling, yielded no fruits. Maintaining this policy would only resemble awarding Mullahs with the desired atomic bomb, jeopardizing global peace and security.
A year ago, just as these negotiations were resuming, western states retreated from implementing UN Security Council resolutions against Iran. This led to the recent defeat.
This impasse in nuclear talks comes at a point when Iran’s economy shows signs of bankruptcy. Following the OPEC decision to maintain prices constant, oil prices fell to less than $60 a barrel. This forced the Iranian currency to its lowest price in a year, which will cause a sharp budget deficit next year. Iran‘s Minister for Economy acknowledged the likelihood that the country‘s budget for next year would be adjusted on $70 a barrel. Economic sanctions placed by US and European states have also had a considerable role in hindering Iran’s economy. According to the statistics released by OPEC, Iran’s oil revenue which in 2008 passed $114 billion, in 2013 following a boost in sanctions went down 40 % to only $67 billion.
The mess that the Iranian economy is now in is only one side of the crisis which has engulfed this regime. What some western politicians try to dismiss is the long record of human rights abuse of the Iranian regime. Any negotiations which exclude the real owners of Iran are doomed to fail. Iranian people have long suffered under Khamenei’s dictatorial rule. This regime’s blatant human rights violations were recently condemned in the UN General Assembly for the 61st time. In addition to condemning the sharp rise in executions in Iran, which has exceeded 1,000 in the past year, the U.N. resolution labeled Iran’s human rights infractions as systemic and “alarming.”
The regime of Iran welcomes the time extension to have time to develop the atomic bomb it extremely needs for its survival. The harshest threat for this regime comes from inside. Floggings, tortures, hangings, even acid throwing and attacking women with knives have not relieved the Mullahs from their fate. Hussein Shariatmadari, the editor of Kayhan newspaper, recently speaking for some of the régime’s security forces in the central city of Isfahan, warned about, “the internal threat of a another popular uprising” that can mean the end for the current regime.
