Beauty and the Beast: Mom’s Latest Child

The Ontario Government released a statement on August 8th titled Ontario Gains 15,100 Jobs in July. In The Real Job Situation in Ontario: Ugly we analyzed the employment numbers for Ontario for June, 2014. Overall we noted:

First we look at the last year’s worth of data in CANSIM Table 282-0087, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and age group, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly. From June 2013 to June 2014, the number of people employed increased by 22,000. This is composed of an increase of 31,200 full-time jobs and a loss of 9,200 part-time jobs. This reflects a modest improvement, year over year, in the job situation with a net increase and a likely conversion of part-time into full-time jobs.

Now we get a look at Kathleen Wynne’s latest child, the July numbers. Turns out that June was Beauty and July is … well read on. First we look at CANSIM Table 282-0087, Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by sex and age group, seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly from the non-seasonally adjusted perspective. We see that from July 2013 to July 2014, the year-over-tear (yoy) change in jobs was a net increase of 41,100 jobs. Before we get too excited, however, we should note that this number is comprised of an additional 69,900 part-time jobs and a net loss of 28,800 full-time jobs. No amount of spin can turn this pig’s ear into a silk purse.

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If the yoy change in job structure in the Ontario economy is not good, the month-over-month (mom) change with a whopping loss of 40,300 jobs is a nightmare. In other words, the Ontario economy lost all of June’s gains in July with a bit of spare change left over. ‘Way to go Wynne. Now we have noted that in June, the Government used seasonally adjusted data to get their good numbers. So reconfiguring the CANSIM table for seasonal adjustment we find that according to the Statistics Canada mathematicians, the Ontario economy created the magic 15,100 jobs that the Government is trumpeting. As we have noted these jobs are a mathematical fiction whereas the actual job number of a 40,300 loss come directly from the Labour Force Survey. As with last month’s study (The Real Job Situation in Ontario: Ugly) we look to see where the changes are concentrated. The Goods-producing sector lost 8,800 jobs including another 1,900 in manufacturing (a yoy loss of 23,000). Worrisome is the loss of 4,900 jobs in construction, agriculture and the resource sub-sectors in what should be a season peak period. The Services-producing sector lost 31,500 jobs. Increases in a number of service sub-sectors were offset by a massive 73,300 job loss in the educational sector. This would likely be from end of school year layoffs of administrative and support staff, to be rehired in September. Overall: not pretty, in fact rather beastly.