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A wide range of errors in the IPCC projections

Dangerous human-caused warming can neither be demonstrated nor measured


By John Nicol —— Bio and Archives--September 10, 2008

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There is no evidence, neither empirical nor theoretical, that carbon dioxide emissions from industrial and other human activities can have any effect on global climate. In addition, the claims so often made that there is a consensus among climate scientists that global warming is the result of increased man-made emissions of CO2, has no basis in fact.

The results of accurate measurements of global temperatures continue to be analysed by the international laboratories, now with 30 years experience in this process while a large number of scientists continue to perform high quality research.  The results of these activities clearly demonstrate a wide range of errors in the IPCC projections.

Among the more obvious of these errors was the prediction of global warming expected by modelling of climate for the last three years.  The actual measurements of global cooling in 2007/2008, flew directly in the face of these IPCC models.  It would be difficult to find a more definitive illustration of an experimental error.

However, the claim of a consensus continues to be used in efforts to attract attention away from the lack of verifiable evidence, in a final desperate attempt to support the hypothesis that anthropogenic carbon dioxide is responsible for global warming.

In the past, verifiable and reproducible evidence was required before acknowledgement of a scientific truth.  In regard to global warming, this principle has been replaced by a process involving a majority vote.

The fundamental requirement of reproducible evidence, has been lost in the process of promulgating the messages regarding the output from the experimental computer models providing suggestions of global warming for the IPCC reports.  No two of these 23 models provide the same values of temperature – the results are not reproducible.
 
That human-caused global climate change is so small that it cannot yet be differentiated from natural changes, has not been accepted.  Rather our governments are being subjected to calls to provide policies based on unsubstantiated assertions of largely non-scientific executives of the IPCC, who ignore the uncertainties expressed in the main scientific reports of the International Panel.  Evidence that no changes have been observed in Monsoonal activity, snow in the Himalayas, the rate of glacial retreat and the rise of sea level is conveniently ignored or presented as perceived evidence of “change”.  Alarming reports are presented of the many natural processes of glacial cracking, ponding of water in the Arctic Ice and the common and repetitive droughts in the drier continents of Australia, America and Africa while insufficient attention is given to the many benefits of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, which forms the basis for plant growth through photosynthesis. 

In summary, the future global and local climate is as uncertain as it has always been.  Multi-decadal warming, cooling trends and abrupt changes, will continue to occur.  Appropriate climate related policies are needed that, first, closely monitor change; and, secondly, respond and adapt to deleterious climatic events in the same way that we already approach hazardous natural events such as droughts, storms and earthquakes.  Measures include appropriate mitigation of undesirable socio-economic effects and other economic stresses resulting from changes of the world’s climate. 

The best scientific advice available at present is to “Follow the Sun”.

Adaptation to climate change will not be aided by imprudent restructuring of the world’s energy economy in pursuit of the mitigation of an alleged “dangerous human-caused warming” that can neither be demonstrated nor measured.

John Nicol, BSc (University of Queensland), PhD (James Cook University);
Chairman, Australia Climate Science Coalition, former Senior Lecturer of
Physics at James Cook University, Townsville, Australia; now residing in
Brisbane, Australia



Guest Column John Nicol -- Bio and Archives | Comments

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