For all the shortcomings of American democracy there are two things of which we can be certain.
First, Americans will elect a new President on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
Second, the winner of the aforementioned election will be sworn in as the 44th President of the United States at noon on January 20, 2009.
The same thing cannot be said for democracy in Zimbabwe. On March 29, 2008, both parliamentary and presidential elections took place in the southern African nation. For the first time since achieving black majority rule 28 years ago, Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwean National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) lost its majority in the Zimbabwean Parliament. The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) led by Morgan Tsvangirai made gains throughout the country rife with hyperinflation, food shortages and life expectancy of 35 years of age. If Americans are hungry for change, Zimbabweans are starving for it.
One of the key vital signs for any viable democracy is its ability to transfer power from one political party to another. In other words, those in power must be prepared to lose it. Whatever qualities Robert Mugabe might possess, losing gracefully isn’t one of them.
If no presidential candidate won 50% of the vote, a runoff was to be held no later than April 19, 2008. As of this writing the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission still has not announced the results of the March 29th vote. Whatever the results, they cannot be good for Mugabe.
How else to explain the arrest of election officials?
How else to explain the detention of foreign journalists?
How else to explain the ransacking of MDC offices?
How else to explain the seizure of the remaining white owned commercial farms?
How else to explain the rounding up and beating of opposition activists?
How else to explain the recount in districts won by the MDC?
These are sure signs of tyrannical regime using any measure at its disposal to cling to power. Those who believe America to be undemocratic cannot begin to imagine life in Zimbabwe.
Zimbabwe’s neighbors haven’t been much help either. As far as South African President Thabo Mbeki is concerned there is no crisis in Zimbabwe. He’s perfectly happy to ship Chinese arms to Zimbabwe. Why does Zimbabwe need China’s military hardware? So it can more effectively beat its people into submission? At least South African port workers and truck drivers have the decency to take a stand and not budge these weapons. They possess a courage their government sorely lacks.
With perhaps the honorable exception of Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, no other African head of state has publicly criticized Mugabe. Many African leaders still look up to Mugabe as a symbol against colonialism. Well, if life after colonialism means 80% unemployment, going from being a net exporter to a net importer of food and life expectancy cut from 60 to 35 then Zimbabweans might welcome back colonialism with open arms.
Of course Zimbabweans, like Americans or any other democratic nation, want to determine their own destiny. The Zimbabwean Electoral Commission should not deny their people their vote and release the election results forthwith. What have they got to hide? What are they so afraid of? That Zimbabweans have started to think for themselves.
With that said, I have no illusions about life in Zimbabwe with Morgan Tsvangirai as its President. Even if Tsvanigirai is the open hand to Mugabe’s clenched fist, Zimbabwe will not be instantly rewarded with jobs, increased food exports and longer life expectancy. It took nearly three decades to fall into a black hole. It will take at least three decades to climb half way out of it.
Of course, many Zimbabweans only know life under Mugabe. The temptation towards corruption and graft will be too much for many otherwise decent people to resist. There will be an even greater temptation for retribution and revenge against Mugabe and his cronies. Whatever euphoria Zimbabweans experience once they know Mugabe is out of power will inevitably be followed by an appetite for violence that might never be satiated and ought not to be. Throw in long standing tribal differences between the Shona and the Matabele and you have the ingredients for a state that is not easily governable. Morgan Tsvangirai might be in a less envious position as Zimbabwe’s President than he ever was as its main opposition leader. Keep in mind that Tsvangirai has survived three assassination attempts and has been tried for treason.
Life in Zimbabwe might not get that much better under Tsvangirai. But we also know that life cannot get better in Zimbabwe so long as Mugabe remains in power. In fact, it is very likely to get to worse. Americans who do not like George W. Bush can take comfort. He will leave office in less than 300 days. Zimbabweans can take no such comfort.
Aaron Goldstein was a card carrying member of the socialist New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP). Since 09/11, Aaron has reconsidered his ideological inclinations and has become a Republican. Aaron lives and works in Boston.
