This is just a short note to let you know that this will be my last memo unless there are some unusual developments. Fifteen years ago I was involved in assisting the people living in terrible conditions along and within the banks of the Jukskei River in Alexandra. Two mothers approached me and asked “Help us please.” I have never forgotten this plea.
From then right through to the present day, I have had an unpleasant battle with those members of the environmentalist community who are more concerned with Kokerbooms, Proteas, tadpoles and water lilies, than with the welfare of the millions of disadvantaged people in our country and on our continent. Now, at last, their world is about to collapse.
Continuing energy crisis
South Africa is currently experiencing a national energy crisis. This is directly the result of the decision by the authorities to delay the construction of coal-fired power stations. These are the source of large volumes of undesirable greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs). I believe that this is one of the reasons for delaying construction. We are now experiencing the consequences.
On Friday I listened to the State President’s State of The Nation address. The government’s two major priorities are poverty reduction and the expansion of our electricity supply system by the construction of additional coal-fired power stations. It will take many years before the supply catches up with the rising demand. He called on all South Africans to work together to ensure the future prosperity of this country and its peoples.
The domestic front
A week before the crisis, the Minister of the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT) announced that he would submit legislation to parliament to force greenhouse gas emitting industries to curtail their emissions. He is unlikely to proceed with the legislation as long as the present crisis continues. This may be many years.
This provides the DEAT with an opportunity to reconsider its approach to the whole global warming issue. The energy crisis has already resulted in the loss of thousands of jobs. Our rising economic prosperity has received a serious setback.
Short course
Last week I participated in a short course for practitioners organised jointly by the Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering, and by Continuing Education at the University of Pretoria. There were some 50 participants. My two presentations were on Lessons learned from historical floods, and The likelihood of a global drought 2009-2016.
Engineers have a key role to play in the continuing prosperity of our country and its peoples.
Engineers have as great a love for our natural environment as any other members of society. We also appreciate that where there are conflicts of interest, (non-commensurate objectives in engineering terminology), such as between development and environmental conservation, a balance has to be sought between genuine environmental concerns and the provision of employment and other benefits to local communities and the national economy. In order to reach an acceptable solution, engineers require verifiable facts, not postulated predictions based on dubious theory. Above all, the interested parties have to work as a team to reach the optimum solution.
The opposite is happening. Engineers have been labelled as fringe scientists. South Africa is suffering because of unilateral decisions based on highly suspect science propagated by elitist pressure groups.
During my presentations I produced evidence that demonstrated that each and every one of the claims made by South African climate change alarmists was without a scientifically believable foundation. In particular I demonstrated that global temperature changes during the past 150 years were broadly synchronous with variations in solar activity, and not with steadily increasing greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power stations, heavy industries and transport.
Engineers should also exercise extreme caution before entering into agreements with United Nations organisations or funding from foreign donor countries for the implementation of climate change adaptation measures. The legal, financial and motivational aspects should be thoroughly investigated and included in contractual agreements. There are more examples of failures than successes in these projects in Africa.
The international front
The DEAT and the informed public will also have to take heed of the rapidly changing international situation.
Bali failed to achieve its objectives. These were that all the nations of the world would agree to concerted and enforceable action to control their GGEs. An ad hoc committee was appointed to attempt to resolve the difficulty before the end of 2009. It is unlikely to succeed. The position taken by the principal emitters are far too wide to bridge.
The European Union has already progressed the furthest along this path and expects all other nations to follow its example. The USA is the world’s largest emitter and is unlikely to adopt measures that will seriously damage its economic competitiveness particularly from the rising giants in Asia.
China and India have very large populations and rapidly growing economies. Their total emissions will soon overtake those of the EU and the USA. They have expressed their willingness to limit their future per capita emissions to the same level as those of the developed nations. This means that their total emissions will continue to rise well into the future. This will increase their economic competitiveness with the developed nations. There will be increasing threats of economic warfare to add to the global problems.
Solar activity not greenhouse gas emissions
All of this is based on the assumption that greenhouse gas emissions arising from human activities are the direct cause of global warming, with a whole range of undesirable consequences. My research stretching over a period of more than 30 years together with my co-authors during the past year, provides unequivocal proof that a synchronous linkage exists between the acceleration and deceleration of the sun as it moves through galactic space and air temperatures, rainfall and river flow on the African subcontinent and elsewhere. Other researchers have produced evidence of the causal mechanism.
Within the last year, following the publication of the IPCC reports, almost every major claim made in the IPCC documentation has been challenged. Early next month a major conference will be held in New York where all this material will be presented and published. I was invited to attend but reluctantly had to withdraw as our energy crisis deepened.
The notion that climate change science is settled is demonstrably false.
Finally
Climate alarmism is collapsing both nationally as well as internationally. Our national energy crisis may well be an example to the world of what happens when attempts are made to control undesirable greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power stations on a national scale.
My activities over the years to combat climate alarmism and its consequences on the prosperity of our country have been difficult but worthwhile. My studies demonstrated that the DEAT and the peoples of our country have been seriously misled.
I have served the country I love. Now I can sheath my sword and return to my main interest together with my co-authors. This is the quantification of the synchronous linkage between variations in solar activity and climatic responses, within the context of our diminishing water resources. We have received worldwide recognition for our work in this field.
Regards to all, and my sincere appreciation for your support without which I would have thrown in the towel long ago.
