What a way for the intelligence shop (G-2) for AFRICOM to begin. The concern and scrutiny regarding the newest military command of the United States may be overshadowed a tad by recent events off the coast of Somalia.
As the efforts to restore a functioning centralized government in Somalia continues to flounder, there has been an increase in piracy in one of the world's busiest shipping regions. Several nations including the United States have deployed both naval and special forces assets to the region in an effort to curtail the criminal activity.
One of the vessels that was recently seized has several intelligence specialists concerned, not only about the cargo but where the cargo was eventually headed to. After all this is one of the most violent regions in the whole world, The Faina is a container ship of Ukranian registry. It was captured within the last ten days. And part of its cargo was 33 T-72 main battle tanks.
Now a guessing game has begun. The pirates have demanded over $30 million in ransom. There are reports that the tanks were headed to Mombasa, Kenya. The Kenyan government has stated that they had purchased the armor from Russia. There have been reports that the government of South Sudan (GOSS) had acquired the weapons. US Intelligence believes that this is an effort to go around the arms embargo against Sudan.
Let us look at these three scenarios. First of all the initial reaction regarding the Sudanese government. This would not be the first time the Russian Federation has attempted to break the sanctions against Sudan. As a matter of fact, the Russians have supported Sudan in the UN on more than one occasion. so this is plausible but I think that the armor could have been unloaded at Port Sudan.
What about the claims of the Kenyan government? Well, the armor was headed to a Kenyan port. This could give the claims some form of legitimacy. There are still concerns regarding abuse in the Mt. Elgon region in the west of the country, but on the whole peace and stability are increasing in this country. Unless the armor is meant to defend the northern border with Somalia and/or Ethiopia.
This brings us to the government of Southern Sudan. This is an autonomous region of Sudan that fought a long protracted insurgency against Khartoum. There is still a level of distrust towards Khartoum to this very day. Also in recent weeks there have been clashes with the LRA (Lord's Resistance Army) which is a Ugandan militia. The LRA was to have signed a peace deal with Kampala after GOSS negotiated a peace accord. When it came time to sign it the LRA did not show.
It is most likely that the armor was most likely headed to either Nairobi or even Khartoum. But with the armor being seized by the pirates, it's possible that the armor could end up being used in Somalia unless either the ransom is paid or the vessel is liberated by the naval elements that have the ship surrounded at this time.
Even though it does not have a forward deployment base or a permanent location, this situation is still an interesting way for AFRICOM to start a new year. This is the US reacting to limit the spread of Piracy. Let us hope that AFRICOM is successful.
