I guess our distraught #NeverTrump friends aren't as influential as they are emotional. Or maybe Hillary is just that bad. Of course, as Trump himself points out, there is something different about Fox News polls:
— DonaId J. Trump (@realDenaldTrump) May 19, 2016
But even Fox had Hillary up 48-41 a month ago. What changed? Nate Silver himself sort of tries to explain it away by pointing out that Trump may have gotten a bump from wrapping up the nomination. But since when has any candidate's wrapping up of the nomination come with such hysterical negativity as has greeted Trump's win?
Clinton is ahead by 14 points among women (50-36 percent). Yet Trump leads by a larger 22 points among men (55-33 percent).
He also tops Clinton by 37 points (61-24 percent) among whites without a college degree (working-class whites).
Overall, Trump is preferred by 24 points among whites (55-31 percent). He’s even ahead by nine among white women (47-38 percent).
The latest headlines on the 2016 elections from the biggest name in politics.
Clinton has a commanding 83-point lead among blacks (90-7 percent), and is up by 39 among Hispanics (62-23 percent).
This is usually where Democrats point out, and not incorrectly, that a national poll is largely irrelevant because the presidency is won with electoral votes and the map is extremely challenging for Republicans. They didn't feel that way in 2000, of course, but it is the truth.
The map offers potential for a Democrat to win with well over 300 electoral votes - as Obama did twice - while Republicans' are usually trying to find a way to squeak by with just over the required 270. George W. Bush got 271 in 2000 and 286 in 2004. His father got over 400 in 1988 against Michael Dukakis, but no Republican candidate has sniffed 300 since, while Democrats have topped it four times.
But all the Democrats who so dominated the electoral map won clear, if not necessarily huge, popular vote majorities. It's one thing to say that Republicans have a tough road in swing states like Florida, Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina and Nevada. And yes they do. But especially so if they're losing the race nationally. It's when you're winning the race nationally that you're in a position to flip those states back to the red category.
None of this is proven, of course, because Trump shows a within-the-margin-of-error lead in one Fox News poll. But if anyone thinks Hillary is going to walk away with this because she's established, proven, etc., while Trump is some blithering racist imbecile, the data doesn't suggest the public sees it that way.
And for all the hammering we've done here of the #NeverTrump crowd, I'm starting to think the number of actual people ready to play that game is infinitesimally small. The Ben Shapiros and Matt Walshes of the world largely talk amongst themselves, often for the purpose of impressing each other with their oh-so-principled commitment to conservatism. I'm not saying they influence no one in the general public, but when it comes down to it I really don't think very many normal people who incline Republican are going to follow the lead of people who are ready to let Hillary have the presidency.
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I also think another factor is at work. The hysterics about Trump during the primary campaign were so over the top, Trump may pleasantly surprise voters who start to see and listen to him for the first time as they pay more attention, and find he is not the wild-eyed, green-toothed monster the media have made him out to be. It's not a very high bar at this point for Trump to outperform people's expectations of him. And ham-handed hit pieces like the one the New York Times published this past weekend can backfire, as the public finds out how dishonest the media is being about this whole thing.
Of course, I can't emphasize this enough: Hillary is a horrible candidate in every way, and no one likes her, nor should they. It's kind of hard to win when you have no redeeming qualities whatsoever, and there is no conceivable rationale for why you should be president. The more the public sees and hears Hillary, the worse her poll numbers get, and the reason is self-explanatory: People are furrowing their brows and asking themselves, "Are we really going to have to listen to four years of this?"
And most people's answer will be: Not if I can help it.
I guess our distraught #NeverTrump friends aren't as influential as they are emotional. Or maybe Hillary is just that bad. Of course, as Trump himself points out, there is something different about Fox News polls:
