Last night, while watching Donald Trump's speech, I realized two things. The first was that the so-called "conservative pundit class" would hate his address. The second is that this election is now Trump's to lose.
On the first point, I was proven right before the speech even ended. A quick glance at Twitter confirmed that the usual cadre of east coast, RNC faithful, talking heads were trashing Trump. His speech was "too dark," or it was "negative," or it was "fear mongering." Folks like Red State's Erick Erickson spent the night comparing Trump to Hitler, while others mocked the candidate's appearance mercilessly.
...And they all missed the fact that his supposedly dour remarks were acknowledging the veracity of EVERYTHING they'd been writing for the last eight years.
Was it a typical convention speech? No, obviously not. It lacked the poetry and rhetorical flourish that have marked GOP speeches since the Reagan era. So what?
We now live in a country where a staggering 70% of the people believe we're headed in the wrong direction. Trump's laundry list of problems may seem distant to those living in D.C.'s ivory towers, but they're very much on the minds of "real people" in flyover country. Instead of standing at the podium, giving some rah-rah "shining city" speech, Trump let the people know he was aware of the problems they face.
It speaks volumes that #NeverTrump conservatives - who've been making these exact points for years - hate the man who vows to do something about the issues they claim to want resolved. Frankly, after decades of watching Republicans in both the media and Washington D.C. "fail up," I'd be worried if they agreed with him. When it comes to Trump, most of the nattering complainers have been wrong so far. Why stop now?
My second point, that the election is Trump's to lose, seems pretty clear to me. Despite the consternation, last night's speech will play with an awful lot of people. Just check out the results of last night's instant CNN/ORC poll:
The majority of viewers who watched Donald Trump's speech to the Republican National Convention on Thursday night said it made them more likely to vote for him in November, according to a CNN/ORC instant poll.
The poll found that 56% of speech viewers were more likely to vote for the New York businessman after seeing him formally accept the Republican nomination.
32% of viewers said his speech had little effect on them, and 10% said it made them less likely to cast their vote for Trump in November.
Overall, 57% of viewers said they had a "very positive" reaction to Trump's speech. Meanwhile, 18% said they were "somewhat positive" and 24% said it had a "negative effect."
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I'm willing to bet that Trump sees a decent poll bump from the appearance.
Then, next week, we'll be treated to a DNC convention where, with 100% certainty, every single speaker will tell you to appease enemies, give up your rights, and abandon capitalism. They'll make the point in different ways, but that will be the takeaway.
If (and I admit this is a sizable "if") Trump can continue to showcase the differences between his approach and Hillary's, while avoiding his infuriating penchant for unforced errors, he's headed for victory.
Last night, while watching Donald Trump's speech, I realized two things. The first was that the so-called "conservative pundit class" would hate his address. The second is that this election is now Trump's to lose.
On the first point, I was proven right before the speech even ended. A quick glance at Twitter confirmed that the usual cadre of east coast, RNC faithful, talking heads were trashing Trump. His speech was "too dark," or it was "negative," or it was "fear mongering." Folks like Red State's Erick Erickson spent the night comparing Trump to Hitler, while others mocked the candidate's appearance mercilessly.
