L.A. Times tracking poll: Trump 47 Hillary 40

Don't get too excited. It's just one poll. It reflects a convention bump that could - but won't necessarily - be wiped out by a potential bump for Hillary at the end of this week. It's a tracking poll, which means it's reflects a rolling average of several days rather than a snapshot in time. And it's July. Nothing is being decided now. But if you want the Trump-Pence ticket to win in November, there are plenty of reasons to find the following encouraging: Here's why a 47-40 lead for Trump in a tracking poll represents something to build on:

First, any notion that Trump was destined to be destroyed in the general election simply by virtue of his being Donald Trump is now out the window. No one that certain to lose ever takes a lead in any kind of poll, let alone a seven-point lead. The Democrats and the media were hoping they could portray Trump as so horrendously unacceptable that he would never have a chance to even come close. They have failed. He is clearly competitive and clearly can win this thing. Second, the fact that this represents a convention bump is actually a good thing, because it means that the RNC was not the festival of darkness that the Democrats and the media want you to think it was. They were full of stories about Trump's "dark and gloomy" concept of America, but the average American who watched Trump's acceptance speech didn't hear that at all. They heard a pretty serious guy who was willing to honestly present a picture of the nation's problems and give at least some hint of how he might approach solving them. That was a pretty refreshing change from politicians who blow smoke up your # one way or the other. Third, while the RNC had its chaotic moments, they were nothing compared to what we've seen this week at the DNC, with the WikiLeaks e-mail dump, the offing of Debbie Wasserman Schultz and angry Bernie Sanders supporters booing every mention of Hillary in the first couple of days. Bill Clinton's speech last night was excellent - complete BS, of course, but presented in Clinton's usual excellent style - but that won't really be much remembered after Thursday night when Hillary herself has to take the podium and speak. Have you ever seen a Hillary Clinton speech? Let alone sat through one as long as this one is going to be? I'm sure it won't be quite as shrill and angry and some of the fiascos she's given in the past, since this is her long-awaited coronation and she'll be in front of a friendly (I think) audience. But it will still be terrible because she is terrible at this, and I think it's entirely plausible that she doesn't get nearly the positive convention bump as a result.

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Fourth, I think the likely dynamics of the race to come are more positive for Trump because the media have already taken their best shot at defining him as racist, sexist and all the rest. The reason his speech worked so well last Thursday night is that many people probably tuned in expecting to see that guy, and instead they saw the real Donald Trump, and a lot of them realized he is not they were led to believe. And they kind of liked him. By contrast, the media has done its best to downplay Hillary's liabilities, so when people see her on the stump, they often expect something better than what they actually get. More exposure for both candidates helps Trump and hurts Hillary, in my estimation. None of this guarantees a Trump win, but it does mean you should reconsider your understanding of the dynamics of the race at this point. I don't know if this one tracking poll is enough to justify saying Trump is winning, but for all the reasons I stated here, there is every reason to think he can win.