By Robert Laurie ——Bio and Archives--April 24, 2017
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According to the ABC/WP poll, among 2016 voters, @realDonaldTrump would beat Hillary Clinton in a rematch -- in the popular vote, no less. pic.twitter.com/vatpPDlqqh
— Jonathan Karl (@jonkarl) April 23, 2017
Among those who report having voted for him in November, 96 percent today say it was the right thing to do; a mere 2 percent regret it. And if a rerun of the election were held today, the poll indicates even the possibility of a Trump victory in the popular vote among 2016 voters.How can that be? Well... Despite what you've been told, Trump is holding on to virtually all of his supporters. Meanwhile, many of Hillary's would rather vote for anyone else - and no, that person doesn't need to have a chance in hades to earn their support:
Among Americans who say they voted in the 2016 election, 46 percent say they voted for Hillary Clinton and 43 percent for Trump, very close to the 2-point margin in the actual popular vote results. However, while Trump would retain almost all of his support if the election were held again today (96 percent), fewer of Clinton's supporters say they’d stick with her (85 percent), producing a 40-43 percent Clinton-Trump result in this hypothetical re-do among self-reported 2016 voters. That's not because former Clinton supporters would now back Trump; only 2 percent of them say they'd do so, similar to the 1 percent of Trump voters who say they'd switch to Clinton. Instead, they're more apt to say they'd vote for a third-party candidate or wouldn’t vote.
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In a cautionary note to her party, Clinton's 6-point drop in a hypothetical mulligan election relates to views of whether the Democratic Party is in touch with peoples' concerns.So, what does all this mean? Not much really. 2016 taught us not to trust the polls, and we don't know how many outraged left-wing non-voters would show up if we replayed the 2016 cycle. Still, the data puts a sizable nail in the coffin of the "if we did it all over again" theory. The election is over and Clinton lost. Gorsuch is on the SCOTUS bench, tax reform is incoming, and we'll still get to ObamaCare eventually. Given that virtually all of that makes liberal heads explode, it's a safe bet that some of these numbers can be chalked up to the sting of investing in a terrible candidate like Clinton. Failure always makes one take stock of his decisions. Trump's approval numbers may not be great, but that's to be expected in such a violently divisive political climate. Make sure your liberal friends know: According to progressive-friendly ABC News, Trump would enjoy an even bigger win the second time around.
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