By David Hogberg -- BombThrowers——Bio and Archives--March 15, 2017
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… a multi-phase treatment: Surgery (using AHCA to remove the tumors like the mandates and taxes), plus chemotherapy (action by HHS secretary Price to stop regulator metastasis), plus radiation therapy (a final package of legislation to eradicate the vestiges of the disease). What most AHCA critics seem to believe is that there is an alternative treatment analogous to taking a single pill — full repeal. Even if Senate Majority Leader [Mitch] McConnell went nuclear on the filibuster and, by some miracle, managed to get such a bill to the floor for a vote, he would never get 51 Republican votes. He’s having enough trouble with “moderates” on AHCA.My concern isn’t with the strategy. Indeed, a three-pronged approach suggests that Congress is becoming more sophisticated at least when it comes to passing legislation. What concerns me, and should concern most Americans, is exactly what result does Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) and other GOP leaders want to achieve with this strategy? If they really want an outcome that greatly expands liberty in health care, then why does the first prong—the AHCA—retain so many of Obamacare’s restrictions? If there is a good reason why the AHCA can’t repeal more of Obamacare than it does, no one has yet made that clear.
What Hogberg has overlooked in the GOP repeal bill is the plan to remove chronically ill people and those with pre-existing conditions from the general insurance pool. As Paul Ryan explained in last Thursday’s press conference, the idea is to incentivize states to set up separate risk pools and reinsurance mechanisms to handle these patients. He offered successful examples of such programs in Wisconsin and Utah (both repealed by Obamacare). This would remove the “older and sicker” patients to whom Hogberg refers from the individual market.What Catron is describing here is state governments setting up a “high-risk pool.” (For what that is, go here.)
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I agree that the 30 percent surcharge is not the best feature of AHCA, but it is nonetheless a financial incentive to make personal decisions rather than an assault on individual liberty. And it isn’t quite as outlandish as Hogberg makes it sound. If you buy life insurance at age 21, your premiums will be far lower than they will be if you wait until 40 to buy the same coverage. Likewise, your premiums will be exponentially higher if you wait until you are 60. That’s just the way insurance works.Yes, that is how insurance works. But it won’t work with the 30 percent surcharge. The surcharge makes it much less expensive for a person to forego insurance until he comes down with a serious illness. In a normal market, a person with a serious illness who is uninsured would either have to pay a much higher premium to get insurance or would be denied insurance in which case he’d have to figure out how to pay for treatment on his own. Both of those are far, far more costly than paying a one-time 30 percent surcharge. Thus, the surcharge gives young and healthy people a very big disincentive to buy insurance until they have a serious illness. Perhaps there is some way that health insurers can make money when consumers have those kinds of incentives, but one doesn’t occur to me. Finally, Catron states that my claim that the AHCA will make the individual insurance market worse than it currently is “simply isn’t accurate.” We’ll just have to agree to disagree. The AHCA repeals one of the few incentives to purchase insurance (the individual mandate) and replaces with a big disincentive to buy it (the 30 percent surcharge). With the present system there will be at least a shell of an individual market. Under the AHCA, there won’t be one at all.
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David Hogberg is a writer living in Maryland. He is author of the book, “Medicare’s Victims: How the U.S. Government’s Largest Health Care Program Harms Patients and Impairs Physicians.”
David Hogberg (@DavidHogberg) | Twitter