Polar Bears Doing Quite Well

Scientists are increasingly realizing that polar bears are much more resilient to changing levels of sea ice than environmentalists previously believed as numerous populations are thriving. ¹ As a result, scientists have been questioning alarmist as there are way more polar bears alive today than 40 years ago. Predictions that bears would die due to a lack of sea ice have continuously not come to pass. Another new study, this time by Canadian researchers, showed the creatures possess higher resilience to changing levels of sea ice than previously believed. The scientists found 'no evidence' polar bears are currently threatened by global warming.

The new population estimates from the 2016 Scientific Working Group are somewhere between 22,633 to 32, 257 bears, which is a net increase from the 2015 numbers of 22,000 to 31,000. The current population numbers are a sharp increase from 2005 which stated only 20,000 to 25,000 remained--those numbers were a major increase from estimates that only 8,000 to 10,000 bears remained in the late 1960s. Scientists reports, "We suggest that the current status of Canadian polar bear sub-populations in 2013 were 12 stable/increasing and one declining (Kane Basin). We do not find support for the perspective that polar bears within Canada are currently in any sort of climate crisis." ² Polar bears became an icon for environmentalists who claimed that melting Arctic sea ice could kill thousands of bears. Fears about global warming's impact on polar bears even spurred the US Fish and Wildlife Service to say that the bear was 'threatened' under the Endangered Species Act in 2008. Polar bears were the first species to be listed over possibly being harmed in the future by global warming. ¹ Yet, polar bears have likely survived past ice-free periods in the Arctic. Scientists with the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks released a study claiming that 'stratigraphic' record of the last 1.5 million years indicates that no marine species extinction events occurred despite major climate oscillations, including periods when the Arctic was completely ice-free in summertime. ³

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In addition, polar bears have been a genetically distinct species long enough to have survived past periods where the Arctic had little or no ice. Not only does genetic evidence suggest bears survived ice-free periods in the past, but polar bear populations have boomed despite shrinking Arctic sea ice coverage. ⁴ Veteran zoologist Susan Crockford sums this up well, "Grim predictions of the imminent demise of polar bears--their 'harsh prophetic reality' as it has been called--have been touted since at least 2001. But such depressing prophesies have so widely missed the mark they can now be said to have failed." ⁵ References

1. Andrew Follett, "Polar bear numbers still on the rise," cfact.org, February 17, 2017
2. Jordan York et al., "Demographic and traditional knowledge perspectives on the current status of Canadian polar bear sub-populations," Ecology and Evolution, 6, 2897, May 2016
3. Thomas M. Cronin and Matthew A. Cronin, "Biological response to climate change in the Arctic Ocean: the view from the past," linkspringer.com, December 2015
4. Andrew Follett,"No extinctions: polar bears survived periods when the Arctic had no ice," dailycaller.com, January 11, 2016
5. Susan Crockford,"Ten dire polar bear predictions that have failed as global population hits 20 to 31 thousand," wattsupwitthat.com, February 25, 2016