Public statements affect different people in different ways. Since the news media think the world revolves around them - since how they react to something is obviously more important than anything else under the sun - they get quite exorcised whenever someone makes a public statement that strikes them as ill-considered.
Donald Trump does that a lot. He talks (or more often, tweets) about halting immigration by Muslims. And about imposing tarrifs on foreign goods. This past week, if you listen to the media, Trump fired the opening salvo in a new nuclear arms race:
The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes
“Let it be an arms race,” the president in waiting was reported to have told Mika Brzezinski, co-host of MSNBC’s Morning Joe programme, in an early phone call on Friday.
According to Brzezinski he went on to say: “We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.”
The incendiary comment followed a tweet on Thursday in which Trump threatened to preside over a major ramping up of the US nuclear arsenal.
“The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes,” he wrote.
The volley of remarks had Trump aides scrambling into damage limitation mode, but their efforts were powerless to neutralise the shock waves of alarm and bewilderment provoked by the president-elect’s remarks.
Alarm and bewilderment. Good grief. The Guardian is accurately describing the shrieking of the chattering classes. They reacted to this pretty much the same way they react to everything Trump says. Oh no! If Trump does that, the world will end!
And they would have you believe that Trump self-evidently messed up, precisely because they reacted as they did. Their reaction is the measure of success or failure.
The truth is, Trump doesn't care what they think or how they react. If anything, their hyperventilation serves his purpose, which is an entirely different purpose from gaining their approval.
Trump doesn't like the trade deals under which America is now operating. He doesn't like our geopolitical position at the moment vis-a-vis the Russians. He doesn't like the way we're approaching the issue or refugees from predominantly Muslim countries. And in each of these situations, Trump believes (correctly in my view) that we got in these undesirable spots because we operated from a position of weakness.
So Trump seeks to change the status quo, and that starts with how he approaches it rhetorically. Trump floats the prospect of a 10 percent tariff on foreign goods, not because he thinks that's the best outcome, but because he needs other parties to understand he's seriously willing to do it if they don't come back to the table. He floats the prospect of a new arms race because - despite everyone's apparently belief that he intends to be a lap poodle for Putin - he needs the Russians to understand that the U.S. is once again willing to exploits its strategic strengths to gain geopolitical advantage.
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The last time we found ourselves in an arms race with Russia, we used it to bring them to their knees because we could afford to build the weapons, and they couldn't afford to keep up. Our economy was that much stronger than theirs. It's not what it was thanks to eight years of Barack Obama's policies, but it's still much stronger than Russia's. We just haven't been willing to use the same advantage in recent years. Trump wants Putin to understand that now we are. And that in no way contradicts the goal of improving our relations with the Russians. It simply means we would do so from a position of strength - again, very much unlike what Obama did.
Consider what happened recently with Boeing and the new Air Force One project. Trump said publicly that the aircraft was getting too expensive and that he was considering cancelling the project. Did he want to cancel the project? Probably not, but he didn't want to pay more than $4 billion for the plane either. And he won't, because Boeing publicly pledged after Trump's threat to keep the cost down per Trump's wishes.
So, you ask, does this mean Trump is just bluffing?
Good negotiators don't publicly state things they are willing to do if, in fact, it's a pure bluff. Do I think Trump is willing to impose a 10 percent tariff if our trading partners won't deal with him? Yep. Do I think he's willing to engage in an arms race if Putin won't deal? I do. Do I think he was willing to cancel the new Air Force One?
Absolutely.
Good negotiators aren't so desperate for a deal - any deal - that they're afraid to walk away from the table. Reagan walked away from Reykjavik without a deal because he didn't like Gorbachev's terms. He wanted a deal, but he knew it wasn't the end of the world if he didn't get one. Obama did exactly the opposite in his dealings with both Iran and Cuba. He wanted deals so badly that he let the other side dictate bad terms to us.
Trump is letting it be known that if his counterparts on various matters don't deal, he's willing to do things they won't like. There's a difference between being willing to do it and preferring to do it. The hyperventilating media and the political class don't understand this at all, and Trump has them in a panic. That plays perfectly into Trump's hands, because the more his counterparts think he might actually do these things, the more eager they will be to deal.
As he has since the start of his campaign, Trump is manipulating the media for his purposes - and doing it masterfully. They will never learn. Because they're not very smart.
