By Lorimer Wilson ——Bio and Archives--September 13, 2011
American Politics, News | CFP Comments | Reader Friendly | Subscribe | Email Us
To put this argument into some perspective, analysts at ING tend to agree. They see the economy as muddling through, but not collapsing. They cite 5 reasons for this perspective:
Related Article: 1. Are We On the Verge of a Second Recession? Is a second recession in so short of a time in the offing? It certainly seems that way. The hope for a continued recovery has grown dim lately as many of the economic indexes are moving towards contractionary territory… There are several concerns pressing the U.S. economy and, in the words of David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, “one small shock” could send us into a second recession. [We, for our part, believe that even] another round of Quantitative Easing by the Fed…may not be enough to offset the real problems facing the U.S. economy. [Let's take a closer look.]Equity markets could be a bit of a different story here. I am actually becoming increasingly concerned about a potential profits recession in the USA as international growth tapers off (remember, the market is not the economy). With all of the doom and gloom in the air, [however,] I think it’s important to keep things in some perspective: the downside for the U.S. economy as a whole isn’t enormous here – we just don’t have that much further to fall because we never really got up.
- Cyclical sensitive sectors, namely the housing sector and the auto sector, are already weak and are unlikely to contract much more.
- Households’ balance sheets have improved since the global financial crisis. Lower rates over a considerable period of time benefit net borrowers. Most US households will benefit from low borrowing rates.
- The trade deficit is likely to narrow due to slower import growth, decline in energy and commodity prices and a weak trade weighted dollar.
- Decline in commodity prices will check headline inflation and could lift households’ purchasing power.
- Investors’ fears are based on their most recent experience. The unpleasant memories of the global financial crisis are biasing investors’ sentiments.
View Comments
<em>Lorimer Wilson is the Editor of munKNEE.com
Lorimer is also a writer, analyst and commentator on the economic, financial and investment environment around the world and has recently been identified as the 12th most-read such writer on the internet out of over 500 frequent contributors.
His articles are unique, insightful, informative, instructive and well researched analyses of the economy and marketplace and posted regularly on more than 50 financial sites at the present time.
Lorimer also is an accomplished editor posting edited excerpts of other author’s articles on his site to provide his visitors with a fast and easy read of some of the best articles to be found on the internet on any given day.
His editorial skills are available for hire should you have an article, book or other written material that needs to be fine-tuned before publication. </a>