By Dan Calabrese ——Bio and Archives--July 10, 2017
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The world’s largest economies have responded to Trump’s trade threats with less protectionism, not more, according to a new study by Global Trade Alert, which has monitored protectionism among countries in the Group of 20 since 2008. Since January, G-20 countries have imposed 29 percent fewer protectionist policies than they did in the same period in 2016. And it’s not because the United States is playing nice: Since January, U.S. policymakers have imposed 26 percent more protectionist policies on its G-20 peers than during the same period a year before, according to the report. Caroline Freund, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, calls this a “backlash to the backlash against globalization.” Trump’s bellicose talk around trade seems to be producing a pause in protection, and even liberalization in the rest of the world, she said.
It’s also a demonstration of the allure of the U.S. market. While countries may chafe at Trump’s demand for new trade terms, they do not want to risk jeopardizing their companies’ access to one of the world’s largest economies by retaliating. “If he is going to go on a trade rampage, they don’t want to attract extra attention by imposing new measures,” Freund said. But while the approach appears to have yielded some short-term benefits, events this week at the G-20 summit underscored the longer-term risks of Trump’s approach.No, they really don't. There is always some risk when you're trying to negotiate a deal with another party, because there's always the chance that the deal will go bad, or that there will be no deal at all because the two sides simply can't agree. And as much as you'd like to do business in theory, you can't find a way to make it work in practice. If Trump's tougher stance on trade terms causes some short-term disruption of global markets, that's easier to manage than being locked into long-term deals that are contrary to our best interests. This was the trap Barack Obama and John Kerry constantly fell into. We ended up with horrible deals like the Iran nuclear deal and the liberalization of our Cuba policy because they went in thinking any deal was better than no deal at all, and the other parties knew they were desperate to get some sort of agreement - even if it was a bad one. So bad ones were precisely what we got.
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