Marco Rubio did his part, although he should have done it two weeks ago when it might have given Ted Cruz a chance to take Florida's 99 winner-take-all delegates. What's done is done, though, and Rubio's campaign is now as officially done as it already was practically done. The Catch 22 if you're a Cruz supporter, of course (or simply a #NeverTrump bitter-ender), is that you needed John Kasich to win Ohio last night to deny Trump that state's 66 delegates, but you also need Kasich to now do what he won't do precisely because he won:
Get out as well.
It's counter-intuitive to think a guy would get out after his first actual win, but there's nothing intuitive about the way this race is going. You'd think Kasich could do the math and recognize that even with the Ohio win, there's no way he's ever going to get enough delegates to become the nominee. But does he realize that? Not only does it appear he doesn't, but it now appears that the dreaded Republican establishment is just as willing as Kasich himself to get on the Kasich-as-savior train now that Rubio is out:
Making the argument on behalf of Kasich going full-bore for the nomination this morning is the Wall Street Journal editorial page:
Mr. Kasich’s victory was the first of the primaries, but it was nonetheless impressive. The exit polls say he trounced Mr. Trump among women and won narrowly with men. He won big among late-deciders and especially among the nearly two-thirds of voters who said they were somewhat conservative or moderate. Perhaps more important, he won a majority of those who cited the economy and jobs as their most important issue.
All of this gives Mr. Kasich some hope of competing better than he has so far beyond his home state. His economic record is a strength he should stress, taking on Mr. Trump more forcefully on policies. The New Yorker will now train his insults on Mr. Kasich the way he has everyone else in the race, and the Governor will have to show the determination to shake up Washington that voters want this year. One way to do that is to start making a more systematic, forceful case against President Obama’s record and Hillary Clinton’s policies and how he would upend the status quo.
Mr. Rubio’s voters are likely to go to Mr. Kasich more than to the other two candidates, and many of the remaining states are in the Northeast and Midwest where the Governor’s brand of reform conservatism should play well. Mr. Kasich can also make the case, validated in every poll, that he has by far the best chance to beat Mrs. Clinton in November. On that score, Messrs. Kasich and Rubio should consider joining up to campaign as a potential GOP ticket. The two share the same political temperament and they would also send a message of GOP unity that neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Cruz can offer.
Yeah, except there's one gigantic problem here: While Cruz now trails Trump by 255 delegates (661-406), Kasich trails Trump by a whopping 519 delegates (661-142), and has not shown the ability to win anywhere but in his own home state. If Cruz has a hole to climb out of (and he does), Kasich has the Grand Canyon to climb out of. There's no way he's going to be able to get to the necessary 1,237 to cinch the nomination prior to the convention - and party regulars surely have to know that - so the only objective they must have in mind is to make sure no one gets to 1,237 before the convention. I guess if Trump, Cruz and Kasich all head into Cleveland with a respectable number - but less than a majority - that's when the brokering begins.
But even there, how does Kasich staying in help to make that happen? Does anyone seriously think Kasich voters would go to Trump in the event he dropped out? They might not like Cruz for whatever reason, but if Kasich voters believe that nominating Trump makes Hillary president, then you have to believe most of them are going to get over whatever bugaboo they have about Cruz and get behind him. As long as Kasich stays in, he draws votes away from Cruz and gives Trump a better chance of winning states like Arizona and Utah, which Cruz badly needs next Tuesday.
I guess what all this means is that the Republican establishment is simply not willing to accept Ted Cruz as the one hope to deny Trump the nomination. Maybe it's because of the things he's said about Mitch McConnell. Maybe it really is personal animus that's causing Republicans to be willing to accept Hillary as president. There's no underestimating the potential of grown adults to act like petulant children, especially in the political realm.
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But it's clear that the establishment has decided it prefers a complete trainwreck/chaos primary season that brings us to a brokered convention, rather than one in which a real constitutional conservative like Cruz simply wins a majority of delegates via the primary process.
I'm starting to think that if all this doesn't hand the presidency to Hillary, it will be a miracle. Fortunately, I believe in those.
Marco Rubio did his part, although he should have done it two weeks ago when it might have given Ted Cruz a chance to take Florida's 99 winner-take-all delegates. What's done is done, though, and Rubio's campaign is now as officially done as it already was practically done. The Catch 22 if you're a Cruz supporter, of course (or simply a #NeverTrump bitter-ender), is that you needed John Kasich to win Ohio last night to deny Trump that state's 66 delegates, but you also need Kasich to now do what he won't do precisely because he won:
Get out as well.
