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European Union, Elections

What to look for in June’s European parliamentary elections



- Dr. Stephen Murgatroyd, Columnist, Troy Media Corporation The whole of Europe will be going to the polls between June 4 and 7, 2009. To be more accurate, of course, 40% will.

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Most “ordinary citizens” feel disconnected from the important work of the parliament, even though it has an impact on many aspects of their lives. So despite the high unemployment, company closures and very socially, politically and economically active governments, voter turnout for the 736 members of the European Parliament will remain low. There are, however, several things to keep an eye on when the results begin to appear. The first will be how deep the defeat of Britain's Labour Party is and what this signals for the future of Gordon Brown, Britain's embattled Prime Minister. Most of the chattering classes in London see the European election and the local elections in Britain taking place on the same day as marking a turning point in the politics of replacing a Prime Minister. If the defeat is devastating, especially in the local elections, and Labour losses are high, key party figures will begin to see their own political future on the faces of their fallen European parliamentary colleagues and local councilors. The knives will come out for Gordon. His response will be a reshuffle of his cabinet and a focused attempt to reassert his authority – the scale of the cabinet shuffle being in proportion to the scale of defeat in the local and EU elections. Gordon Brown will survive, but the party will in full dress rehearsal for its expected defeat in May or June, 2010 when there must be a general election in Britain. Brown will be looked upon as “damaged goods” and the internal strife within the Labour Party – something which it excels at – will help secure a victory for the Conservative Party in the 2010 elections. A second development could be the British National Party (BNP) and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) winning seats in the European Union Parliament. The UKIP, which won twelve seats in the last European election, wants Britain out of the European Union (EU). The BNP is the new incarnation of Oswald Moseley's version of the British fascist movement – opposing immigration, EU membership and minority rights and favouring what we would see as a white supremacist position. At the last election the BNP secured just 6.4% of the vote – just 2% short of the votes requires to secure the allocation of a seat. The third thing to watch is the pattern of voting in Ireland. The Lisbon Treaty, which would give a new constitution to Europe that, amongst other things, would significantly strengthens the role of the EU Parliament, was rejected by the Irish voters in a plebiscite last June. When the votes are counted in the European elections this June, it may signal a change of heart by the Irish or, more likely, a hardening of their opposition to the new constitution. Some of the parties running in the election stand in favour Lisbon bus some are opposed. Finally, keep an eye on Germany where Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, faces a Federal election this September. No one party is expected to emerge as an overall winner in these elections and commentators are suggesting that traditional coalitions are having a hard time forming, given the challenges that Germany faces. Merkel has committed to winning a majority for the CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union of Germany/Christina Social Union of Bavaria) and FDP (Free Democratic Party) - the CDU/CSU's traditional coalition partner - in the 2009 election. The EU elections will tell whether she is on track to do so. At the last European election, the CDU/CSU won 44.5% of the vote and he FDP 6% - they need to do at least this well to signal an easy victory in September. For pure entertainment, however, keep an eye on Italy. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, facing divorce, originally selected several glamorous women with no substantive political background to run for office. It will be interesting to see whether Italians support glamour or substance.


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