Political strategy is ordinarily considered “inside baseball” because only die-hard followers of the sport are interested. But occasionally, such topics have national implications. Such is the case with Hillary Clinton’s ambitions.
Hillary Clinton, who was the presumptive Democrat presidential candidate for 2008 until Barack Obama soared to the apex of adoration, has never lost her ambition for the oval office. Her campaign fund has been rebuilt to $3 million, she still has a campaign staff of eight, and in a recent poll matching her against conservative heroine Sarah Palin, Hillary outscores the Alaskan governor by double digits.
Barack Obama still retains personal popularity and approval, but his legislative agenda is receiving a somewhat chillier reception. Congressmen who go home to their districts for the August recess and pledge support for health care reform are met with widespread and outspoken criticism. Carbon cap and trade regulations have been sidelined. Union-favored card check legislation has stalled. Polls tell us most Americans believe Barack Obama will raise their taxes, though he promised tax rebates to 95% of the population. Based on this, Hillary Clinton could build a strong case of “I told you so.”
The only complication is that Hillary Clinton is Secretary of State, and thus part of the administration she would have to run against. She would clearly have to resign before starting her campaign, and this is a situation where timing is everything. There are a number of factors to be considered.
The factor most in Hillary’s favor is Obama’s popularity. It has remained high, though trends and history tell us that it will continue to decline. This factor will favor Hillary more as time goes on. But she must wait until the decline in Obama’s popularity is certain, irreversible, and measurable among Democrats rather than just independents. She will need support from her own party to run.
However, she can’t wait too long, because the administration’s hapless foreign policy–acquiescence toward Iran’s nuclear ambitions, North Korea’s missile launches, Russia’s belligerence, China’s aggression–is bound to produce a disastrous consequence at some point. Hillary cannot afford to have Iran test a nuclear device, North Korea to provoke Japan with a missile flyover, or China to make some aggressive move toward Taiwan–at least not while she’s heading the State Department. She must resign before any major foreign policy setback occurs, because then she’ll just look like the one who quit when the going got tough, while still sharing responsibility for the problem.
Complicating that decision is one other factor–Hillary must find a plausible reason for resigning, other than simply wanting to run against an incumbent Democrat. She must find a foreign policy decision by the White House which she can oppose on principle, and resign over in protest. Preferably it would involve some issue other than the hot zones mentioned above. Trade policy, foreign aid, or cultural issues would be best. It would have to be an issue that highlights a difference between Hillary and the president, and it must come soon. The world situation is coming to a boil, and Hillary must be out of the kitchen when the lid blows off.
Three years ago, it seemed inconceivable that anyone could oppose Hillary for the Democrat presidential nomination. She watched that dream evaporate with the Obama phenomenon. After the 2008 election, it seemed impossible that any Democrat could challenge the incumbent Obama in 2012. That situation is no longer a certainty, either. Hillary Clinton, patient and known for long-term thinking, is in sight of a rare comeback opportunity. All she has to do is choose the right moment.
But she’d better hurry. Otherwise in 2012, her only job prospect will be vying with Sandy Berger to be document archivist at the Clinton Presidential Library. The only Clinton Presidential Library there is ever likely to be.
