In many ways, the War in Afghanistan has become the forgotten front in the War on Terror. In this forgotten front, Canada has done a great deal of heavy lifting.
Currently, Canada has 2,500 troops in the southern province of Kandahar which is situated along the border with Pakistan. This makes Kandahar a very dangerous place. Canadian troops have had their hands full with a resurgent Taliban. As of this writing, 78 Canadian troops have lost their lives in this mission. That might not seem like a large number, but Afghanistan represents Canada’s largest combat mission since the Korean War. Only the United States and Great Britain have lost more of their soldiers in Afghanistan.
Canada’s mission in Afghanistan is scheduled to end in February 2009, one year from now. How long Canada remains in Afghanistan remains to be seen. The decision whether to stay or go might result in the fall of Canada’s Conservative government, led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
While most Canadians support the mission there has been some vocal opposition. Some oppose Canada’s mission in Afghanistan because they believe Harper is doing the bidding of President Bush and is nothing more than an American puppet. This view is well represented in the New Democratic Party (NDP). Its leader, Jack Layton, has called for direct negotiations with the Taliban. That’s right. Negotiate with the Taliban. The NDP which proclaims itself a champion of a woman’s right to choose advocates negotiation with an entity that believes a woman should not have any choices.
There is also strong opposition coming from Quebec. La Belle Province has long been a hotbed of anti-war sentiment. Canada’s participation in WWI and WWII was deeply unpopular in Quebec largely over the issue of conscription which the Canadian government utilized towards the conclusion of both wars. In fact, anti-war sentiment in Quebec goes as far back as the Second Boer War in South Africa at the beginning of the 20th Century. Canada was obligated to be involved in this conflict because Britain still determined Canada’s foreign policy at the time. The Quebecois wanted no part of a war to preserve British colonialism. More than a century later, Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois want Quebec out of Canada and Canada out of Afghanistan.
Stephen Harper and the Tories came to power in January 2006, ending a dozen years of Liberal rule first under Jean Chretien and then Paul Martin. While the Tories won the largest number of seats in the House of Commons they did not have a majority of seats and have had to rely on the NDP and Bloc Quebecois to remain in power. Complicating matters is that the Tories also have a handful of seats in Quebec, a province that isn’t usually favorably disposed to the Conservative Party. Not only can the Tories not rely on the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois to continuing supporting the mission in Afghanistan, whatever Tory support there is in Quebec is also at risk.
So where does this leave the Liberal Party? Late in 2006, Stephane Dion succeeded Paul Martin to become its new leader. However, Dion is almost as unpopular in Quebec with Quebec separatists as the War in Afghanistan. Despite becoming the leader of the Official Opposition, Dion has struggled to gain acceptance within various factions of the Liberal Party, especially the one led by his Deputy Leader, Michael Ignatieff, who was widely favored to win the 2006 Liberal leadership race. While Dion has been critical of the mission in Afghanistan, Ignatieff has expressed support for it revealing deep divisions in the Liberal Party. Because of Dion’s inability to gain acceptance, the Liberals spent most of 2007 well behind the Conservatives in the polls. Consequently, Dion has chosen to support Harper and the Tories in Parliament when the NDP and Bloc Quebecois have opposed a government measure. To not do so would result in the fall of the government and force new elections. Why would an opposition party want to force an election it knows it cannot win?
However, in recent months, the Liberals have made gains in the polls at the expense of the Tories. On February 8, 2008, the Nanos Research Group released a survey that gives the Liberals a narrow lead in the polls with the Liberals holding 33% of support while the Tories have 31%. ( HYPERLINK "http://kencon7.blogspot.com/2008/02/poll-liberals-33-per-cent-conservatives.html" [url=http://kencon7.blogspot.com/2008/02/poll-liberals-33-per-cent-conservatives.html]http://kencon7.blogspot.com/2008/02/poll-liberals-33-per-cent-conservatives.html[/url]) Nearly a year ago, the Tories had a nine-point lead in the polls. ( HYPERLINK "http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/03/01/poll-tories.html" [url=http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/03/01/poll-tories.html]http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/03/01/poll-tories.html[/url]) These gains by the Liberals have been due in large part to the business dealings of former Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney when he was in office in the 1980s and early 1990s. Ironically, Harper has long been a rival of Mulroney and began his political career as a research director of the Reform Party two decades ago. The Reform Party formed in Western Canada due to disaffection with Mulroney. They believed he wasn’t conservative enough and also believed the Quebec-born Mulroney favored his home province over the western provinces. But since both Harper and Mulroney share the distinction of being Tory Prime Ministers, whether Harper wants it or not, he is politically linked with Mulroney.
So what is Harper to do? In October 2007, Harper appointed John Manley to head up a blue ribbon panel to look into Canada’s mission in Afghanistan and whether to continue it. Manley is a former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Finance in the Liberal governments of Chretien and Martin, respectively. Despite the long standing rivalry between Chretien and Martin (that’s an article unto itself), Manley was widely respected by both men and respected among the Tories. In January 2008, Manley came out with his report. He recommended that Canada continue its combat mission in Afghanistan but with one condition. That another NATO country send at least 1,000 troops to the Kandahar region as well supply helicopters and unmanned aircraft. Absent this, Manley recommended withdrawal of Canadian troops. Harper accepted Manley’s recommendations.
Canada is not alone in wanting other NATO members to take a greater role in Afghanistan. Earlier this month, Germany refused an American request to add more troops to southern Afghanistan. Shortly after Nicolas Sarkozy took office in France, he withdrew troops from Afghanistan although a few months later sent personnel in to train the Afghan army. Harper is reportedly lobbying Sarkozy, fresh off his honeymoon with Carla Bruni, to send French troops into Kandahar. Given that Sarko is probably in a good mood, Harper figures now is the time to ask him for a big, big favor. But if France doesn’t come through, it is possible that Britain will add the requisite troops and equipment.
Yet even if France or Britain offers Canada assistance this will probably not suffice for the Liberals. Dion is open to Canadian troops remaining in Afghanistan but only if they are placed in a humanitarian role and not involved in combat. But it is hard to see France or Britain agreeing to send troops to Kandahar if Canada withdraws its combat troops altogether.
With this in mind, Harper has prepared a confidence motion to be presented to the House of Commons next week. It proposes that Canada’s combat mission in Afghanistan be extended until 2011. This is probably a good indication Canada is going to get the assistance it is seeking from either France or Britain. But Dion is adamant that the combat mission is going to end in a year from now. As such, Dion plans to introduce amendments to Harper’s confidence motion. He has also given the Liberal Party caucus marching orders to vote in unison. This is an even stronger indication Dion is ready to bring down the government and force an election. The confidence vote is expected to take place at the end of March.
But maybe an election is exactly what Canada needs. Stephen Harper needs to make it clear that Islamic terrorism is not only America’s problem; it is Canada’s problem too. It is the problem of any country that values decency, democracy and dignity. There are times when nations, both large and small, must be prepared to stand up and fight those who would obliterate decency, democracy and dignity.
To paraphrase Edmund Burke, evil triumphs when good nations do nothing. If Harper and the Tories are re-elected, Canadians will have decided to do something.
Aaron Goldstein was a card carrying member of the socialist New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP). Since 09/11, Aaron has reconsidered his ideological inclinations and has become a Republican. Aaron lives and works in Boston.
