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New Jersey Institute of Technology, Bruce Bukiet
Baseball Season Already Mathematically Predicted
By Joshua Hill Thursday, April 3, 2008It’s the beginning of the baseball season, and no matter who you’re supporting (Go Blue Jays!) it’s time to make your yearly predictions. And though each of us have a different method to work out who is going to win what and who’ll take bottom place, I doubt yours will be as involved as Bruce Bukiet’s.
Of the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Bruce Bukiet has for the past seven seasons used a mathematical model to calculate who will win, who will do well, and who will fail miserably.
The computer model predicts the probability of how a team will do against any given team, based on who is hitting, who has the home field advantage, who’s on the bench, and who is the starting pitcher and relievers.
Created by an avid New York Mets fan, the model has a pretty decent accuracy rate. According to its creator the model has more often than not picked correctly rather than incorrectly. Last year’s predictions saw him pick the Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets and Padres as clear Division winners; he was right about the Indians and Angels.
“These results give a guide of how teams ought to perform during the season,” he said. “But there are so many unknowns, especially concerning trades, injuries and how rookies will peform that cannot be taken into account.”
Nevertheless, the predictions for this season see the American League pretty much down to a contest between the Yankees, Sox, Tigers and Angels (what about my Blue Jays???). However the National League is not so clear cut.
“The National League should see much tighter races, with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves winning the East and the wild card respectively, while in the Central and West Divisions, only the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants have no real shot of making it to the postseason,” Bukiet said.
The complete list of predictions is below, but no matter what the predictions say, the game isn’t over until the fat lady has sung!
* AL East: Yankees – 98; Red Sox – 98; Blue Jays – 86; Rays – 75; Orioles – 63
* AL Central: Tigers – 96; Indians – 87; White Sox – 79; Twins – 74; Royals – 63
* AL West: Angels – 92; Mariners – 78; A’s – 75; Rangers – 70
* NL East: Mets – 92; Braves – 89; Phillies – 84; Nationals – 73; Marlins – 70
* NL Central: Brewers – 84; Cubs – 83; Reds – 81; Cardinals – 80; Astros – 79; Pirates – 71
* NL West: Rockies – 85; Padres – 85; Diamondbacks – 83; Dodgers – 82; Giants – 75
