Dr. Tim Ball  Bio

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The World is Cooling

Hunger from harvest failures fault of Global Cooling

People tolerate incredibly bad government most of the time. What generally drives them to revolution is a failure of the food supply or food costs beyond reach. Riots in Haiti and elsewhere are already occurring and potential for more increase every day.

Traditionally, it was bad weather, such as the harvest failure in 1789 that became a catalyst for storming the Bastille and triggering the French Revolution.

Government efforts at the time to offset the problem by importing food from other parts of Europe were thwarted by widespread harvest failures. This is the case today as world supplies are extremely low. Today, bad weather is still the major cause of poor harvests however, the spiraling costs are mostly due to unnecessary government policies to deal with non-existent problems. In their political blindness politicians have also forgotten economic fundamentals. 

There are no farms in the cities but no cities without farms. This is a pronouncement countries usually forget as they become more urbanized. They become increasingly removed from agriculture and food production. They also forget economic strength is in the ability to produce surplus food. The Agricultural Revolution preceded the Industrial Revolution. They forget at their peril as history shows, yet the US and developed countries seems bent on throwing away its agricultural and thereby economic advantage. Worse, it is occurring because of terrible and unnecessary policy without factual or scientific justification.

A recent remarkable statement by the UN, but with profound implications for what is happening to world food supplies went almost unnoticed. They reported that for the first time in history more people were living in urban areas than in rural areas. This is a real measure of globalization as it was a situation that previously only existed in developed nations. It is also the natural trend of all previous civilizations that usually ends in collapse of the agricultural base. However, within this pattern are seeds of danger, that are manifest in government policies on energy and climate change.

Civilization is generally defined as a society moving from barbarism to an organized political, social and economic structure. Most think of this in terms of becoming urbanized, shifting from hunter-gatherer to sedentary agriculture. The most logical explanation for the shift was to ensure food supply. Food supply means security, which is a common theme in most human behavior. More important, surplus food is surplus time and in that time you can create any civilization you want. Gothic cathedrals rose because good harvest allowed farmers to produce enough to feed themselves and the builders.

Nowhere was the ability to produce surplus food more successful than in North America.  Most of the continental US lies in the middle latitudes between 30 and 50°N with generally productive soils and climate, especially for production of grains, corn and vegetable oils. Approximately 2% of the population are farmers who produce enough to feed their own country, but with much left over for export. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, never in the history of mankind have so few produced so much for so many at so low a price. The difficulty is that the farm population has become such a small part of the voting population that they lose their voice. They also are forgotten by the urban dweller. How many people are aware of the struggle farmers have gone through with low prices, increased costs, especially for chemicals and equipment, and the challenge of marketing in growing global markets.

Weather reports on radio or television are a simple example of the shift away from awareness of agriculture. Farmers are frustrated by reports such as, “a nice sunny hot week ahead”, when they desperately need rain. Forty years ago many urban dwellers still had relatives on the farm or had come from rural areas and newspapers had regular columns devoted to agriculture. How many urbanites know soil erosion is considered one of the major environmental problems in the world? Developed world farmers know and have made extensive adjustments to conserve the soil. Now the only time farming is discussed in the urban media is when there is another “hand out” to farmers. 

Commitment of 40% of US agriculture to biofuels has created a crisis in world food supplies and increasing costs for poor people everywhere. Europe and other regions seem bent on the same unnecessary path. Sadly, the policies are hurting the very people politicians and environmentalists claim to care about. However, that is only part of the story. Cold weather, droughts and poor harvest conditions are exacerbating the problem everywhere. The poor weather, with too much or too little rain, shorter frost free seasons and lower heat units for maximum yields, will continue. Not because of warming as the environmentalists and governments claim, but because the world is cooling and will continue to cool for the next several years.

Ironically, grain and corn farmers are making money after years of struggling with low prices and increasing production costs. However, all farmers producing livestock have input costs spiraling out of control. Either way the price of all foodstuffs has increased and will continue to increase as long as politicians are swayed from science logic and basic realities.

Environmental extremists and alarmists have exploited peoples fears and lack of knowledge about climate and climate change. They have bullied politicians into wrong policy. Afraid to be tagged with not caring about the environment they claim public support, for their policies. They are wrong. The majority of the public do not understand climate science but history shows they know who to blame and how to react to bad policy and increasing food costs.