WhatFinger

Dotcom bubble, Housing bubble

The Recession Bubble That Was Delayed


By Robert Rohlfing ——--December 10, 2010

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Are you(we) better off today than we were 5 to 10 yrs ago, I understand that you personally may be or not be, but let's expand out on that a moment and look at the bigger picture in an honest assessment.

Yes you personally may be making more money but others in this nation have taken a decrease in over all pay and have been forced to contribute more to the overall benefits package that's included in when you consider compensation for your labor. Many citizens have taken a 5, 10, 15% pay decrease in that time span while others such as tradesman are facing the fact that many of those positions will not be coming back anytime soon. This excludes the fact that the public sector is not facing these same sacrifices over all as we cannot seem to address this sector in an honest way due to the protections they are afforded unlike the private sector. The blame does not lay at Obama's feet alone, and contrary to the standard perception no one really believes that, yes he has tripled down and dug the hole deeper that is without question and in all honesty cannot be denied. As many have pointed out the spending originates in the House. When the Republicans were in charge they forgot to curtail spending and as a result, it was Republicans and Independents that decided to expel them as a result. The Democrats could not do so on their own and that is the truth of the matter, they just did not have the numbers to do so. In Jan 2007 the house switched hands over to the Democrats and they went about attempting to get everything they have wished for since the mid 60's , the pace was unsustainable and dug us in at a faster rate than any other time in history including WWII and the two current wars (they contributed of course) but when you examine discretionary domestic spending in comparison you see where it really falls. Now let's rewind, in 2000-2001 we were in a recession, a mild one some will say, but this one that we are currently in really stemmed from that one and in all facets is the same one. We never did have a balanced budget or a surplus coming out of Clintons time in office, I know we may have on paper, but let's be honest for once on this issue and lay it to rest. We can go back and forth till our faces are blue on this but every administration plays the numbers game no matter if you have an (R) or (D) after the name. At that time we had some major things many forget occurring. In the late 90's we had the dot com craze and that bubble burst, leading into 2000-2001 we had uncertainty in many aspects of our economy, than Sept11th. 2001 occurred. We were in a recession at the time, but when you look at the targets in question it was our financial center, military, and Government that was attacked. Both the Democrats and the Republicans at the time had to shore up confidence in the population and looking back they did so in a way that helped lead us to where we are today. We were told go out and spend, and the Government along with Business made the opportunities possible for us to do so (this is where all three aspects share blame including us). As a result of things done in congress with the lending for mortgages it was creating the bubble that eventually burst. We went about taking advantage of those loan procedures when in the back of our heads we forgot that this was a recipe for disaster. The same can be said with credit lending for cars and credit cards, it was not predatory as many will want to claim, they were catering to our demand and it was allowed by those in charge from the other two aspects I mentioned. Ok now let's look for a moment what it did do in the short term that led to where we are at and how the 5-10 yr question comes into play.

3 pillars: Manufacturing, Transportation, Construction

3 pillars: Manufacturing, Transportation, Construction ; these three are intertwined and play the biggest factor, service is a minor player over all. What occurred that delayed a real recovery from that recession that we were in at the time and allowed for the fall that we are at today was the boost in those three sectors through the manipulation from those in congress from both sides and from the administration trying to shore up confidence in the population to deflect that we did face a long term war against this country declared by those that would like to see its downfall . The open lending boosted the demand for new homes (that people really could not afford in the long term) and the demand for new cars. Take a look at the numbers in these two sectors during that time period and you will see what I mean. As a result there was a greater demand to transport the widgets and materials that fuel those sectors, so transportation expanded and loans were once again given when they should not because they were given under a false premise that we were out of the hole when we were not. Looking back many of us (from all sides) started to see that this was a bubble that was building that eventually was going to burst and it did placing us back right where we started in late 1999 early 2000. Over all we never let that recession play out, we forced it to be placed on the side burner and all parties are at fault, but it was done to try and calm the public. Employment expanded in these three sectors temporarily , most so in the construction trade, these folks are the ones now that are making up the largest numbers of people unemployed long term right now and there is no real end in sight for them unfortunately. All the stimulus in the world will not put them back in there former positions. Why? Look around at all the vacant houses and commercial buildings, you have a surplus in that regard. They can go into the service end of their trades or change all together, continuing to allow them to stay on unemployment for 3 yrs will not force them to look at alternatives until they are approaching the end of the run on payments. By then you have the influx of new people coming out of schools looking to compete as well that are more compatible to the new sectors of the economy opening up. So in turn we will not be creating jobs by allowing the extension of these benefits but creating another bubble, no one is saying that we do not feel for these people because we do, but we repeat the cycle of creating bubbles that are going to burst in the end. With unemployment recorded at 9.8% but really around 15% are we really better off now than we were 10 yrs ago or are we just delaying the recovery that was not allowed to play out in 2001.

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Robert Rohlfing——

Robert Rohlfing writes about Liberty and the Preservation of Freedoms.


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