As surely as the sun rises and sets, the Canadian federation is slowly devolving into a handful of separate and independent states.
The dissolution of the Canadian federation has been quietly advancing for decades but the timelines have suddenly become more compressed and gaining momentum. Few of us have even noticed.
The idea that there will come a time when Canada no longer exists as a country may be laughable to some and frightening to others. Though many of us may no longer walk this land when it finally happens, the movement from a single National entity into several autonomous countries has already begun.
Quebec has been on the cusp of separation since the 60s. Though public sentiment there has eased on the issue it still exists and requires only some unknown spark to re-ignite and flourish.
Ontario has long bemoaned the unfairness of a federation that has seen its once great manufacturing sector contribute so much and, in the opinion of most Ontarians, receive so little in return. Ask any Ontarian about this country and they will likely tell you, “We ARE Canada”.
The vast majority of Canada’s population resides within the borders of these two provincial giants. This means the federal government has always been hard pressed to do anything that might upset voters there, even when the best interests of the nation are in jeopardy.
As a result neither the East nor the West has ever been recognized as anything but a handy supplier of raw materials. A group of eight “lesser” provinces orbiting a black hole that swallows up all the oil, timber, fish, wheat, beef, iron, gold, potash and low cost workers the regions have to offer.
With no real voice in Canada's government, the Atlantic premiers have, for several years, held meetings and conferences designed to more closely align their direction. They continue to find ways to strengthen their economic ties, enhance their political clout and streamline their individual expenses, without Ottawa’s assistance.
In recent years, the Western provinces have also begun to follow the lead of their Atlantic counterparts by working together to address issues of mutual interest and strengthen their ties to one another.
Now, with manufacturing heavy Central Canada slowly being weakened by an impending recession, Ontario and Quebec, the two most powerful provinces in Canada, have decided the time has come for them to band together for self preservation.
To all appearances, the coalitions formed in the Western Provinces and those on the Atlantic Coast may have been fortuitous, in light of what is to come after this latest move by Ontario and Quebec. A move that could well put the final nail in Canada's coffin.
When Ontario or Quebec sneeze, Ottawa reaches for the tissue box. It’s always been that way. Now that both provinces are joining forces the likelihood that any federal government would dare deny them just about anything they want has never been lower.
This can only mean very dark days for the rest of the country.
What Ontario wants Ontario gets.
What Quebec wants Quebec gets.
For years Ontario and Quebec have been enviously eying the oil and energy wealth of other provinces and looking for ways to “access” it.
Now that Canada has shifted to an energy based economy oil and electricity are the new currency of the federation. Oil, electricity and cash are three things many parts of Canada have more of these days. They are also three things Ontario and Quebec desperately want.
Make no mistake, Ontario and Quebec intend to improve their lot and the rest of the country can be damned.
When Ontario and Quebec band together the oil wealth of Eastern and Western Canada will be up for grabs. The electrical energy capacity of places like Newfoundland and Labrador will no longer be safe. And a federation that was extremely dysfunctional, even when Ontario and Quebec acted independently, will begin to spiral into collapse.
Either Alberta or Newfoundland and Labrador will likely be the first to see the full impact of this new reality as more and more of their dreams are crushed to satisfy the yearnings of the two larger provinces. They will also be the first to make a move toward independence.
Then, like a series of dominos, other provinces or regions will follow. An Atlantic State will form, then one or two Western States, Quebec will finally achieve the independence it has so often talked of and, in the end, the people of Ontario will be able to say with all honesty, “We ARE Canada”.
It’s no longer a matter of “if “Canada will cease to exist as it does today but when. Perhaps within the next 20 years, perhaps the next 30 or 40 but it will happen, as surely as the sun rises and sets.
