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Whatever happens next is up to Iran. Clearly sanctions have not deterred their plans, Israeli strikes seem increasingly likely

Iran closes in on viable nuclear weapon



A respected US think-tank has stated that Iran could be as close 30-50 days from creating enough weapons grade material to produce a viable nuclear weapon. The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) has run various scenarios with one producing a single weapon this year and another scenario seeing the Iranians producing four weapons by early next year.
Some experts believe that even if Iran converts all of its 20% enriched uranium to weaponry now; they would still be a year away from a useable weapon. However recent moves by the Iranians to install new centrifuges at the Fordo and Natanz plants, along with the sophisticated IR-2 machine at Natanz, demonstrate that Iran is stepping up its pace. Reaction in the United States has not been significant enough with the news being pushed down the pile. Reaction elsewhere in the West (other than in Israel) has been seemingly non-existent. For some countries the shooting will have to start before they pay attention and then blame America for causing it in the first place. According to ISIS “If Iran successfully produced enough [weapons-grade uranium] for a nuclear weapon, the ensuing weaponization process might not be detectable until Iran tested its nuclear device underground or otherwise revealed its acquisition of nuclear weapons, therefore, the most practical strategy to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons is to prevent it from accumulating sufficient nuclear explosive material, particularly in secret or without adequate warning." Senator Mark Kirk from Illinois stated “The Senate should move forward immediately with a new round of sanctions to prevent Iran from acquiring an undetectable breakout capability;” while House of Representatives Majority Leader Eric Cantor stated that nothing should be off the table "to prevent Iran from acquiring the world's most dangerous weapons. We all want negotiations to succeed, but time is clearly running out." But with further talks in the offing & 6 nations (China, France, Germany, Russia, UK & USA) preparing to sit down with Tehran the American Congress, waiting to see, may tragically be waiting too long to act.

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The Iranians meanwhile claim the usual innocence. They lie as well as the American Democrats so we’re not sure if President Obama is either too taken by charm with the new Iranian leader or simply admires him for being as deceiving as he is. Marzieh Afkham, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said: "This is a huge lie because, according to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, production, storage and use of weapons of mass destruction are haraam (forbidden by Islam). Weapons of mass destruction have no place in the Islamic Republic's doctrine. This kind of report is totally false." It’s interesting that the Iranians would send a woman out to speak on this unless they see it as another smite of disrespect towards the infidels. The statement itself would be amusing if the stakes weren’t so high. Iran’s public declarations are known for their smarmy content and questionable accuracy. Clearly the material here is aimed at ultra-lefties in the West more concerned about Iran’s undeserved good reputation than they are about the physical well-being of all Israeli’s. Iran is actually following a strategy employed by the Nazi’s in 1930’s Germany. Both its nuclear and biological programmes can claim legitimate uses; one for energy and the other for vaccines. At the same time both programmes are produced so that they can be quickly and easily converted into weaponry. Subsequently the government can claim deniability when accused of developing weapons and there are plenty that will fall for it. Nazi Germany did the same with, for example it airplane manufacturing. Originally Luftwaffe bombers were designed as passenger aircraft in order to get around sanctions imposed against Germany from World War One. But they were designed so as to be easily convertible to military use at the right time. Israel is not about to wait for an Iranian Hitler to emerge or to see its cities pummeled by a nuclear blitzkrieg coming at them from Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu is a skilled leader who understands giving the West time and space, but at the same time will only wait so long. If the Israeli’s agree with the assessment by ISIS then it could be military strikes for Hanukah. Approximately 7 locations would be likely targets. The afore mentioned Fordo and Natanz would be the favourites along with the uranium conversion facility at Esfahan, the heavy water reactor at Arak, and the Parchin military complex – where nuclear testing is believed to have occurred. The Tehran Nuclear Research Centre is a possibility but is located in the capital (non-military casualties) and is more likely to use only lower enriched uranium. Likewise the Defense Industries Organization is in Tehran but is considered a significant player in nuclear weapons development. Whatever happens next is up to Iran. Clearly sanctions have not deterred their plans, although the great new leader Hassan Rouhani has made smoochy moves to get Obama to ease up. Israeli strikes seem increasingly likely with diplomacy achieving little but that will likely fan flames of unjustified anger across the Middle-East. Easily rolled leaders like Obama and Cameron will then exhibit their dysfunctional ways as they try to appease Arab leaders and give away even more in a futile attempt to regain their approval.


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David C. Jennings -- Bio and Archives

David Jennings is an ex-pat Brit. living in California.

A Christian Minister he advocates for Traditional & Conservative causes.

David is also an avid fan of Liverpool Football Club and writes for the supporters club in America

David Jennings can be found on Twitter
His blog can be read here


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