By Dan Calabrese ——Bio and Archives--November 20, 2013
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The law's supporters say the dire scenarios are farfetched. "There is essentially no risk of a 'death spiral,'" says MIT economist Jonathan Gruber, who helped design the ACA as well as the Massachusetts law on which it was modeled. "There are substantial risk mitigation mechanisms as well as subsidies that will attract in healthy enrollees." Most important, say Gruber and Zirkelbach, is a section of the ACA under which the federal government will pick up a substantial portion of the losses for the next three years, if the program goes sour for insurers. There's no precedent for a program of this size and scale, and Gruber warns that that the early data are ripe for overinterpretation. While fewer young and healthy customers would mean higher premiums, "it's hard to say how big a difference 28% vs. 38% makes -- we just don't know."So says one of the designers of ObamaCare. They "just don't know," but they wrote it into the law that if the young healthies don't sign up (which they're not) and the insurers lose a fortune (which they will), the federal government will bail them out. Talk about an open-ended financial commitment! Remember when Democrats were touting projections from the Congressional Budget Office that ObamaCare would actually reduce the deficit and would cost less than $1 trillion in its first 10 years? We always knew that was fraudulent because it counted 10 years of revenues but only six years of expenditures, since no benefits would kick in until four years after the plan was passed. Now that 10-year projections include nothing but years in which expenditures take place, and the real costs of this turkey are becoming clear, it's obvious that the 10-year cost is at least three times what they said. But that doesn't even include the cost of bailing out the insurers if the young don't sign up, which is exactly what's happening. What will that cost? And is there any end to it? They say it's only for the first three years but you know they're not going to just let the health insurance industry collapse when the three years have gone by and nothing has changed. Congress passes spending measures all the time that are supposed to have expiration dates, but they just extend them when they're supposed to expire. Is there any reason to think they won't do that here? As long as ObamaCare is the law, this is looking like a long-term entitlement cost on top of the unfunded obligations for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Those $1 trillion deficits we've seen for most of the Obama presidency might look like a drop in the bucket compared to what we'll see when this kicks in.
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