CBS/New York Times poll: GOP has the upper hand in 2014, thanks to independents

The results of a new CBS / New York Times poll were released last night, and they’re bad news for Democrats - both in terms of the President's approval and their party's midterm hopes. Asked if they were satisfied with the Obama Presidency, a whopping 59% said "no."

From CBS News:

Amid continued pessimism about the economy and direction of the country, 59 percent of Americans say they are disappointed in Mr. Obama's presidency (including 37 percent who are very disappointed); 40 percent are satisfied. Much of this discontent comes from Republicans and independents, but a quarter of Democrats express at least some disappointment. Disappointment with Barack Obama's presidency has grown since the summer of 2012, and much of that rise has been among independents. Forty percent of independents say they are very disappointed today, up from 27 percent in August 2012.

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Clearly, the "25% of Democrats" are mostly going to be people who think Obama's not liberal enough, or hasn't managed to accomplish all of their anti-constitutional goals. There's probably a small subset that has "seen the light" but it's going to be miniscule. The real meat here is that independents continue to abandon the President. That's ugly news for Dems heading into a year 6 midterm. Obama received particularly low marks his handling of foreign policy and the economy - with approval ratings of only 39% and 38% respectively. That's odd, since Democrats are still actively campaigning on how they've managed to save America from the "worst economy since the great depression." It seems that, even after all these years, it's still "the economy, stupid." ObamaCare is also a millstone, and the poll contains some interesting numbers. Only 6% of respondents think the law is working well and, even more revealing, only 13% of Democrats. The left loves to argue that people just want the ACA "fixed." According to the CBS/NYT poll, that's true. Overall 50% want the law kept in place with "some changes" to make it work. Unfortunately for Dems, the question becomes pretty much meaningless when you realize that "some changes" could mean almost anything. If “some changes” means eliminating the individual mandate – even for a small percentage of people – that 50% is gone. More interestingly, the margin between independents who want it fixed and those who want it repealed is razor thin at 49% to 45%. That's within the margin of error. In case you're thinking this is all about Obama, it's not. This isn't a situation where the President's doing poorly, but the rank and file is escaping the bad numbers. From the New York Times assessment:

Republicans are in a stronger position than Democrats for this year’s midterm elections, benefiting from the support of self-described independents, even though the party itself is deeply divided and most Americans agree more with Democratic policy positions, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll shows.

Yeah, they just can't resist focusing on the GOP's internal struggles. But as the Times points out, you can't ignore the fact that the Republicans have the upper hand as the country heads toward November.

A majority of Americans surveyed also said they wanted both parties to do more to address the concerns of the middle class, reduce the budget deficit with both tax increases and spending cuts, and let illegal immigrants stay in the country and apply for citizenship. Mr. Obama shares those positions on the budget and immigration. Those stances among voters have not translated into support for the president’s party, as 42 percent say they will back Republicans in November, and 39 percent indicate that they will back Democrats, a difference within the poll’s margin of sampling error. There is a sense of foreboding in the public as well, with 63 percent of Americans saying the country is on the wrong track, and 57 percent indicating that they disapprove of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy. In addition, eight in 10 Americans are dissatisfied or angry with the way things are going in Washington.

Compare these numbers with the rhetoric being offered by incumbent Democrats, and you'll see that the disconnect is just staggering. So, what's the bottom line? The "Dems vs GOP" results here may be within the margin of error, but that still means Democrats are in deep trouble. Midterm elections - especially those in year 6 - almost always break against the President's party. Factor in a deeply unpopular healthcare law, a stagnant economy, and a toxic President and you've got a recipe for major GOP gains in November. That doesn't mean the Republicans can't blow it - we've all seen them do that before - but it does mean that the game is theirs to lose. You should find it extremely telling that the New York Times is admitting as much.