Robert Gibbs: ObamaCare's employer mandate will never go into effect

Throughout the ObamaCare debate, Democrats have remained firmly ensconced in the idea that the controversial "employer mandate" was an absolutely integral part of the ACA. The New York Times repeatedly referred to it as a "cornerstone of the new law" and virtually every Democrat is on record shouting about its importance.

Then they realized how politically disastrous it was, and it was delayed. Twice. Now, according to former Obama Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, it's not even that big of a deal. In fact, there's a good chance it will never go into effect.

A former longtime advisor to President Barack Obama predicted Wednesday that the employer mandate — a key piece of Obamacare — will not survive.

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It was among several predictions Robert Gibbs, former White House press secretary, had for the future of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act in a speech at the 2014 Benefits Selling Expo. “I don’t think the employer mandate will go into effect. It’s a small part of the law. I think it will be one of the first things to go,” he said to a notably surprised audience. The employer mandate has been delayed twice, he noted. The vast majority of employers with 100 or more employees offer health insurance, and there aren’t many employers who fall into the mandate window, he said.

This isn't exactly surprising. The employer mandate has been widely regarded as "unworkable" for a while now. Just yesterday a new report from the American Health Policy Institute indicated that ObamaCare's implementation would cost large companies between $4,800 and $5900 per employee. So it's pretty easy to see the political downside of keeping the mandate in place. However, there's no easy way for Dems to extricate themselves from the mess they've created. Cancelling it would incentivize corporations to dump employees into the exchanges. There, millions of new "enrollees" would be forced by law to enjoy the high premiums and astronomical deductibles for which ObamaCare has become famous. That's a political loser. Worse, cancelling the employer mandate while clinging to the individual mandate would mean that Democrats had granted a massive favor to "evil corporate fat cats," while sending the IRS to persecute ordinary Americans. Another political loser. Beyond all of that, one has to wonder how they would cancel it in the first place. As ‘President stampy feet’ likes to say, "It's the Law." He's been able to get away with delaying it via an illegal wave of the hand, but for something this big, that just isn't going to fly.