Scientists often warn about ‘the big one’ coming when it comes to earthquakes. The political establishments knew there was some shaking coming but the full force of change from the weekend's European elections is only just beginning to be felt.
Eurosceptic parties which are mostly small organizations polling in single digits did well everywhere across the 28 nation bloc while liberal parties struggled. But nowhere was the impact felt as it was in Britain and France. In particular the UK’s Liberal Democrats (Lib. Dems.) have taken a stake to the heart that may be inoperable losing 10 of their 11 seats.
The extreme and anti-immigration French National Front (FN) headed by Marine Le Pen triumphed with 25% of the vote projected from normally accurate exit polls for Euro elections. The seats are allocated proportionally with the victorious party expected to be allocated over 20 of France’s allocated 74 seats.
Meanwhile in Britain it was UKIP recording massive gains that have completely wiped out the Lib. Dems. despite a completely failed and false racial labeling campaign by UKIP opponents. The party has artfully walked the tightrope of separating itself from true extremists like FN, while maintaining a lot of the same policies such as full EU exit and major immigration reform. Britain’s true extremists – the BNP – lost both of their seats.
A buoyant Suzanne Evans, UKIP communities spokeswoman responded to the BBC on-air when asked if it was possible her party would form a partnership with FN: “We absolutely are not the same, it’s a real shame that UKIP has been lumped in with these extreme parties that we see elsewhere in Europe. We are the common sense centre! Isn’t it fascinating the EU will be shown tonight to be a completely failed project? It has driven these far-right parties to the forefront. People don’t want a European super state.”
It is that last observation by Evans that explains why in Greece the main left-wing party is being pounded; the eurosceptics in Denmark came in 1st, while in Germany the startup Eurosceptics party scored 7% in a country that fears anything that could possibly be called far-right.
The Scottish National Party (SNP), spearheading a drive towards an independence vote later in the year seemed to get stuck in gear. Party leader Alex Salmond blamed the BBC for beaming in excessive UKIP stories contributing to SNP failure. It was in fact the BBC’s attempt to discredit UKIP as being far-right that resulted in all the publicity.
Embarrassingly for Labour Party leader Ed Miliband, who sits in the Westminster Parliament, his Doncaster constituency voted for UKIP over Labour by 1 point! Labour MP Sadiq Khan from Tooting was asked what Labour would offer? He blamed employers for not paying the minimum wage to immigrants and the sitting government for not enough houses being built. This he seemed to characterize as upsetting to voters who then turned to UKIP!
Labour did finish second, they were expected to finish in the top 2, and did improve on their disastrous showing in 2009. But expectations were that they could win and they will be disappointed that they only pipped the Tories for 2nd. For the said Tories this was the first time they have ever finished 3rd in a national election.
The Conservatives in the UK don’t seem to have learned much, sticking to the established lines that had just brought them defeat. Grant Shapps, party Chair, was trying to sound like a journalist while spinning the party line. He said “we want to re-negotiate with the EU and have a referendum in 2017” (the party line). Asked about a comment by fellow MP David Davis that we should move up referendum to 2016 he responded: “Can’t rush something like that, it’s a very reasonable time.”
The BBC brought in other Conservatives. Liam Fox more accurately stated: “citizens of Europe feel they are not being served by the European Union”. When pressed on Shapps comments he said: “If the choice was between ever closer union or leaving I would choose leaving. “
Former Conservative party leader and faithful soldier William Hague stated when asked why the electorate is not persuaded by Cameron, that he agreed with Fox, but then added that the relationship with the EU can be fixed. He rightly added that Labour & Lib. Dems. will not give people a choice. However a caller to LBC radio also pointed out that whereas Cameron may support a referendum on British membership he would also be campaigning to say in the union.
Which takes us to the mortally wounded Lib. Dems.! Tim Farron MP, Party Chair said somebody had to have the backbone to stand up for European membership. “Its courageous but we’ve paid a price for it” he said. Asked if party leader Nick Clegg should stand down he avoided a direct answer saying: “Britain is drifting towards the exit door of the European Union”. He continued to explain that we do better with Europe than without. Like the Tories though, his party’s catastrophic 5th place showing is their worst positional finish in a national election.
Final Results in England and Wales, with Scotland and Northern Ireland still to call:
UKIP 28% / 23 seats
Labour 25% / 18 seats
Conservative 24% / 18 seats
Greens 8% / 3 seats
Lib. Dems. 7% / 1 seat
Plaid Cymru (Welsh Socialists) 1% / 1 seat
Turnout in the election across Europe was 43.1%, according to provisional European Parliament figures - up on last time. Eurosceptic parties are expected to get around 129 seats of 751 seats.
