New polls: GOP up on generic ballot, Scott Brown pulls to a dead heat in New Hampshire

If there's one truism in politics that actually holds water, it's that you don't want to peak too soon. You can be up by 20 points, but if it happens in June, it's essentially meaningless. Unfortunately this means that, in an election year, June through August are interminable for policy wonks and political junkies. Nothing much happens, because no one wants to be the candidate who says, or does, the wrong thing. (See Akin, Todd)

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Then, all of a sudden, things start to break. Opinion shifts, polls start to move, and the race heats up. Welcome to mid-September. From the beginning of the year, all the way to the end of July, Republicans were taking a beating in generic ballot polling. Now things are changing. As HotAir points out, we're starting to see "a drumbeat of GOP leads: Four points in GWU; three points in ABC/WaPo; four points in CNN; seven(!) points in Fox News; and, three points in Pew." That's lead to a RealClearPolitics composite that looks like this: New polls: GOP up on generic ballot, Scott Brown pulls to a dead heat in New Hampshire Now, obviously, that's not a "win." A lot can still happen - at any moment - that can derail these numbers. However, it does show momentum in the right direction. So, you ask, what's causing the shift? HotAir is blaming it primarily on the Democrats' foreign policy failures. Over at Politico, they've got some truly disastrous polling that shows the President collapsing on "kitchen table" issues - namely joblessness and a nonexistent "recovery." The truth is; it's probably a combination of both fiscal and international issues, including the administration's deeply unpopular immigration debacle. ....And it's starting to have an impact on races which were, until recently, thought to be extreme longshots. As WSBT New Hampshire reports:

Scott Brown, the former senator from Massachusetts who moved to New Hampshire to run in a more friendly environment, appears to be in a dead heat with Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a new poll shows. A CNN/ORC International poll out Monday finds Shaheen and Brown tied among likely voters, with both obtaining the support of 48% among 735 voters surveyed. A close race could mean bad news for Democrats, who are struggling to maintain control of the Senate. Keeping the seat in the Democratic column is crucial if the party want to maintain a slim majority in the Senate.

Oddly, Shaheen's got an above-water approval rating of 54% - higher than Scott Brown, who stands at 46%. Usually, you'd assume that such solid numbers would make the election a simple matter of staying in the race until November, without screwing anything up. So, what in the world is dragging Shaheen down? Once again: The reason lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue:

What could be a drag on Shaheen, however, is New Hampshire residents’ opinion of the leader of her party. Thirty-eight percent of New Hampshire adults polled approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing, while 60% disapprove. Throughout the campaign, Brown has sought to tie Shaheen to Obama.

So, when people ask us 'why should we care about Presidential approval ratings, when Obama can't run again?' now you know. The Commander in Chief's popularity always matters in an election year.