By Robert Laurie ——Bio and Archives--September 29, 2014
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The ground under Bruce Braley has shifted. The Democratic U.S. Senate candidate is 6 points behind his GOP rival, Joni Ernst, according to The Des Moines Register's new Iowa Poll of likely voters.
Ernst leads 44 percent to 38 percent in a race that has for months been considered deadlocked. She leads nearly 4-1 with rural voters, and is up double digits with independents. "Very interesting, and good news not just for Ernst but also for the GOP's chances of taking the U.S. Senate," said national political prognosticator Larry Sabato of "Sabato's Crystal Ball." Just seven months ago, political analysts considered Braley almost a shoo-in for a seat held for 30 years by liberal Democrat Tom Harkin.Meanwhile, that same kind of shift is happening in races all around the country. Over at The Washington Post, the paper has acknowledged the upgraded chances of Republicans retaking the Senate - in an article it must have just killed them to write.
The most bullish model for Republicans is Washington Post's Election Lab, which, as of Monday morning, gives the GOP a 76 percent chance of winning the majority. Leo, the New York Times model, pegs it at 67 percent while FiveThirtyEight shows Republicans with a 60 percent probability. A week ago, Election Lab gave Republicans a 65 percent chance of winning the majority, Leo put it a 55 percent and FiveThirtyEight had it just under 55 percent. All three models give Republicans very strong odds of winning the open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia as well as beating Sens. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.). That would net Republicans five seats, one short of the number they need for the majority.According to the WaPo, the odds shift is mainly the result of GOP polling gains in Alaska, Colorado, and the aforementioned Iowa race. Until recently all three of those were seen as toss-ups, but momentum has been steadily moving in the Republicans' favor. Here's hoping these candidates can maintain the pressure. While we wait to find out if they pull it off, let's watch Joni Ernst's "Squeal" ad again!
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Robert Laurie’s column is distributed by HermanCain.com, which can be found at HermanCain.com
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