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Many factors are at play, and demographics is but only one of them

Declining Proportion of 15-24 Year Old Males Does Not Explain Canada's Dropping Crime Rate



In a stinging attack on Prime Minister Harper's "tough on crime" policies, Stephen Maher of Postmedia News reaches some rather problematic conclusions:
"Demographics -- specifically, the number of men between the ages of 15 and 24 -- has the biggest impact on the crime rate. The prime minister can't really take credit for the aging of the baby boom echo generation. It's likely that his policies -- more incarceration -- have made us less safe, since prison often makes criminals worse, not better."
It is not clear where Maher's sweeping generalizations regarding 15-24 year old males and Canada's crime rates come from, but even a cursory look at the data suggests this simply cannot be accurate. Between 2005 (the year before Harper took office) and 2013 (the latest year with complete crime data), the percentage of the Canadian population made up of 15-24 year old males declined only slightly from 7.02 percent to 6.73 percent. This is only a 4 percent decline in the proportion of the population comprised of 15-24 year old males. And yet, the overall crime rate -- all Criminal Code violations (excluding traffic) -- fell by more than 29 percent between 2005 and 2013. How does a 4 percent decline in the proportion of 15-24 year old males lead to a nearly 30 percent reduction in the crime rate? The violent crime rate declined by over 21 percent, and the property crime rate by almost 36 percent.

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Unless you wanted to postulate a bizarre hypothesis that extremely prolific 15-24 year old male criminals aged themselves out of this demographic between 2005 and 2013, leaving behind a cohort of massively less crime-prone 15-24 year old males, Maher's assertions appear to fall apart a first glance. Historical data also doesn't support Maher's claims. From 1998 to 2005, the proportion of 15-24 year old males among the Canadian population actually increased from 6.91 to 7.02 percent, yet the overall crime rate fell by 9.5 percent. If a smaller proportion of 15-24 year old males means much lower crime rates, the necessary corollary is that a larger proportion of 15-24 year old males must lead to much higher crime rates. But it didn't, and ergo, the hypothesis is disproved. Demographics is but one factor that may influence crime rates in Canada. As Statistics Canada clearly notes, other equally -- if not more -- important factors include public reporting rates to police, local police policies and procedures, legislative changes, social and economic factors, and technological change. Consequently, chalking up the majority of the very large decline in Canada's crime rates during Harper's terms in office to only a slight decline in the proportion of 15-24 year old males seems unsupportable.


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Sierra Rayne -- Bio and Archives

Sierra Rayne holds a Ph.D. in Chemistry and writes regularly on environment, energy, and national security topics. He can be found on Twitter at @srayne_ca


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