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Will he, won't he?

NYT: Rand Paul is in for 2016, looking to announce April 7th



If you're swimming in the Libertarian end of the GOP gene pool, the New York Times might have some good news for you. According to their sources, Senator Rand Paul has all but decided to run for President in 2016, and he even knows the date on which he plans to announce his candidacy.
Paul fans, circle April 7th on your calendars:
Senator Rand Paul is eyeing April 7 as the day he will announce his plans to run for president, people close to him said, a step that would position him ahead of his potential Republican rivals as a declared candidate and allow him to begin raising money directly for his campaign 10 months before the Iowa caucuses. Mr. Paul, the junior senator from Kentucky and the heir to the robust Ron Paul grass-roots network, will take the next month to continue talking with members of his family about whether they are comfortable moving forward with the exhausting and, at times, agonizing rigors of a modern presidential campaign. Only his family's doubts could change his mind at this point, said associates of the senator, who insisted on anonymity because Mr. Paul's plans had not yet taken final shape.
So, it sounds like it's a done deal, unless his family absolutely refuses to endure the horrors of a Presidential bid. That's a genuine concern and, given how nasty politics can get, Mr. Paul had better be sure he's willing to tolerate the year-long beating that he - and his loved ones - are going to receive.

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Also yet to be settled is the question of how Senator Paul will get around a Kentucky law that would bar him from running for Senate and President at the same time. The current idea is....
His Senate term is up in 2016, and Mr. Paul is planning to make his case to the Kentucky Republican Party on March 7 that it should hold a presidential caucus instead of selecting its candidate in the primary scheduled for May 2016. The Senate primary would still be held in May, but a presidential caucus would be held earlier, so Mr. Paul technically would not appear twice on the same ballot.
If that plan works, you're probably safe in assuming his candidacy is a lock. However, if the Kentucky GOP doesn't accommodate him, things become trickier. The Democrats are already looking at a friendly 2016 congressional map, and they'd love to see Paul leave office. Just like Marco Rubio's seat in Florida, which Debbie Wasserman Schultz is currently eyeballing, they'd love a shot at another pickup. So the question becomes: How many potential GOP candidates will be willing to risk well-held Senate seats for a longshot at higher office?


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