A recent Ekos poll finds the NDP with a slight lead over the Tories and the Liberals. This poll is consistent with another recent poll that found the three major parties in a statistical dead heat.
According to the Ekos findings, the socialist party has the support of 31.3% of those polled followed by the Conservatives at 29.2%. The Liberals trail at 23.9%. Compared to support at the 2011 election, the Conservatives have dropped at the expense of both the Liberals and the NDP.
The poll was conducted between May 27 and June 2 and 2,204 adults took part. The margin of error is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
Unless there is a major change between now and the October 19 election, one thing is certain; the next Canadian government will be a minority although it is impossible to say which party will form the minority government.
Recent polls raise the issue of whether the Conservatives are spending too much time attacking Trudeau while virtually ignoring Thomas Mulcair and the NDP. Continuing in this way could end up being a costly mistake leading to the possibility of the NDP forming its first federal government in Canada’s history.
It is easy to see why the Tories like to focus on Trudeau. It is fun and easy as Trudeau practically writes negative attack ads himself. This is the guy who said budgets balance themselves and it is “not fair” for the government to help all Canadians. His idea of fighting the Islamic State is to send winter clothes to the terrorists’ victims.
The issue is not that he’s not ready but that he’s simply unqualified to govern
Even so, the last major ad wherein the Conservatives said Trudeau is “not ready” was lame, implying he does not have enough experience to govern. Trudeau has been a Member of Parliament for seven years, only one year less than Stephen Harper had when he became prime minister in 2006. The young Trudeau has more experience than Papa Trudeau had when he became PM and seven years more than Brian Mulroney did. The issue is not that he’s not ready but that he’s simply unqualified to govern. On the other hand that, love him or hate him, the same cannot be said for Mulcair.
It is easy to forget Mulcair is the leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition while Trudeau is simply the leader of the third party. And it seems the Conservatives are ignoring this fact, concentrating their attacks on Trudeau the Younger.
The NDP’s ascension to official opposition status in 2011 is seen as a fluke and to some extent it was. Then Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff raised issues in the House of Commons that only concerned him and a few of his fellow eggheads. The late Jack Layton, the then NDP leader, raised matters that concerned ordinary Canadians, at least those on the left of the political spectrum. A combination of Ignatieff’s incompetence and Layton’s political skills led to the “Orange Crush” that saw the Liberals fall to third place. But that was then and this is now.
Bill C-51, the anti-terrorism legislation
While seen as a temporary realignment of Canadian political parties things have changed. An NDP government in Alberta, the promise of which was laughable just a few months ago is now a reality. And then there is Bill C-51.
Bill C-51, the anti-terrorism legislation, is seen by many on the left as a gross violation of Canadians’ civil rights. Poor Justin saw the positive polls and instinctively decided his party would support the legislation. Those who oppose Bill C-51 are passionately against it, causing many Liberals on the party’s left to go over to the NDP.
And then there is the media. Contrary to what some believe, the Canadian media is not in the tank for Trudeau the way the American media is, or at least was, for Barack Obama. Neither Trudeau nor his father were ever given messianic status by the media; rather they were treated as rock stars. Yes, there was swooning and fainting in the presence of the Trudeaus but rock stars are not messiahs. If a rock star ever gave a concert that was the music equivalent of Trudeau saying budgets balance themselves, the fans would turn against them.
The media wants Stephen Harper out more than they want Trudeau in. Look for them to play up Mulcair on such issues as C-51 as long as the wind seems to blow that way.
If they have any chance of winning, the Tories need to spend more time going after Mulcair and forget about silly Justin.
