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The polling results indicate that same-sex marriage will be an important, and likely very divisive, factor in the 2016 U.S. general election

Poll: Only One-Third of Republicans Support Same-Sex Marriage



New polling data from the Pew Research Center shows very low levels of support for same-sex marriage among Republicans. The Pew Research Center survey, conducted May 12 to 18 among 2,002 adults, found just one-third of Republicans support same-sex marriage, in contrast to 65 percent of Democrats and Independents.
Among religious groups, white evangelical Protestants are dominantly opposed to same-sex marriage, with a 70 percent opposition rate. Other major groups surveyed -- including Catholics (38 percent opposed, 56 percent in favor) and white mainline Protestants (33 percent opposed, 62 percent in favor) -- are generally in favor of same-sex marriage. The unaffiliated are also in overwhelming support for same-sex marriage, having just 11 percent opposed and 85 percent in favor. A majority (57 percent) of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters say their party is not doing a good job "representing their views on same-sex marriage," regardless of whether the respondent supports (63 percent), or does not support (54 percent), the concept. Only 22 percent of conservative Republicans support same-sex marriage, versus 59 percent of moderate/liberal Republicans. Surprisingly, 25 percent of white Evangelicals, 63 percent of white mainline Protestants, and 43 percent of Catholics said they see no conflict between homosexuality and their religious beliefs, whereas the Bible is clear in viewing homosexuality as a sin.

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Republican support for same-sex marriage, generally declining with age

Between age groups, a large difference exists in Republican support for same-sex marriage, generally declining with age. The Silent Generation (aged 70 to 87) have the lowest levels of support (24 percent). Baby Boomers (aged 51 to 69) have only marginally higher approval ratings for same-sex marriage (31 percent). With Generation X (aged 35 to 50), 45 percent of Republicans are in favor, while Millennials (aged 18 to 34) are nearly 60 percent in favor. The wide variation in support for same-sex marriage with age poses problems for GOP strategists who advocate tailoring policies towards the youth wing of the party. Individuals generally become more conservative with age, and thus, the high levels of support for same-sex marriage within the Millennial and Generation X cohorts may decline as the groups age. Supporting same-sex marriage will alienate a substantial portion of the older generations which form the majority of the GOP base. With the American population growing older, a trend that is expected to accelerate, these older generations and their values must remain the dominant determinants of Republican policy if the party wants to achieve electoral success. A majority (52 percent) of Republicans said the issue was either very important (33 percent) or somewhat important (19 percent). Among conservative Republicans -- who generally oppose same-sex marriage, 40 percent indicated the issue was very important. Another 18 percent said it was a somewhat important issue. The polling results indicate that same-sex marriage will be an important, and likely very divisive, factor in the 2016 U.S. general election.


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Sierra Rayne -- Bio and Archives

Sierra Rayne holds a Ph.D. in Chemistry and writes regularly on environment, energy, and national security topics. He can be found on Twitter at @srayne_ca


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