By Robert Laurie ——Bio and Archives--September 3, 2015
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In May, we announced criteria for our September 16th Republican debates at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. We said that we would use the average of approved national polls from July 16th through September 10th to determine the makeup of the debates. At the time, we expected there to be many more national polls following the first Republican debate, in August, than there appears there will be. In fact, in 2007 and 2011, there were 16 and 15 approved national polls in the comparable AugustSeptember time frame. This year, there have been only three such national polls released. We learned this week that there will likely be only two more polls by the deadline of September 10th. In a world where we expected there to be at least 15 national polls, based on historic precedent, it appears there will be only five. As a result, we now believe we should adjust the criteria to ensure the next debate best reflects the most current state of the national race. In the event that any candidate is polling in the top 10 in an average of approved national polls released between August 7th and September 10th, we will add those candidates to our top tier debate, even if those candidates did not poll in the top 10 in an average of approved national polls between July 16th and September 10th. We have discussed these changes with the Republican National Committee and the Reagan Library and they are fully supportive.So, barring some sort of "polling miracle" in the next 8 days, we can look forward to Carly Fiorina having a seat at the big kids' table. Fiorina's made some troubling comments about immigration in the last couple of weeks, but she's still a formidable candidate who needs more exposure. Giving her a spot on the main stage is good news for her, just as an idea-centric debate is good news for all of us. CNN is making a smart call here.
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