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The Canadian economy is on the edge of a major contraction that will devastate those socialist provinces so dependent on a vibrant export market for Canadian oil

Flash Point: The Significant Impact of U.S. Oil Production



US Global Investors have given us a concise overview of US oil production up to t2020. In an article titled The Significant Impact of U.S. Oil Production, CEO Frank Holmes considers trends in production and demand that show by 2020, the US may require only about 3 MMBbls/day imports.

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He shows rates of growth, shale production and discusses legislative obstacles. From this chart it is interesting to see that the North Sea and Mexico are in decline, along with dome of the old fields of the Persian Gulf. Most of OPEC is in decline or barely increasing. Iraq is the one country in the Mid East whose production is increasing well but this may simply be recovery to prewar levels. Iran has large reserves but the geopolitical situation is causing a decline in their production. We have commented before that the geopolitical implication of these production growth trends are large and not far off. We’re not sure that the impact on Canada has sunk in or even reached Canadian consciousness. By 2021, the US will not need Canadian oil. Thus the Keystone Pipeline will be an economic disaster. Canada needs to move oil east to Canadian refineries and west to the coast via the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline to service Pacific markets. Failure to act means Eastern refineries will be fed by shale oil from US Appalachia, particularly when in the next decade, the US is a net oil exporter. Western production will be shut in or sold below market value into the US if a West Coast pipeline is not developed. The Canadian economy is on the edge of a major contraction that will devastate those socialist provinces so dependent on a vibrant export market for Canadian oil (British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec). Obama and the tree-hugging fraternity are doing Canada a favour by scuttling the project or at least delaying it until somebody can do some rational projections.


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Ian Nunn -- Bio and Archives

Ian is a retired information technologist. While working at Health Canada he completed a BCS degree with highest honours at Carleton University in 1999. In 1998 he took a leave of absence from the federal government and worked as a consultant to Ontario Hydro Nuclear for 15 months in Y2K risk management. He retired from the government in 2000, went on to earn an MCS degree at Carleton, 2002, and subsequently completed the requirements for a PhD except for a dissertation.

Several years of graduate studies have equipped him to do thorough background research and analysis on topics he finds engaging. He is owner of the eclectic blog, The POOG. The acronym “POOG” came from a forgotten source: “pissed-off old guy”. A web search found a more flattering but accurate association: ”The mightiest of all men. He fights ignorant darkness in the name of wisdom, truth, courage, and honor.”

Ian lives in Ottawa.


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