INSS

“Obama’s Choice”: The Afghan-Pakistan Dilemma

By Yoram Schweitzer and Sean London On December 1, President Obama unveiled the administration's new approach towards the wars raging in the Afghan-Pakistan (AfPak) arenas. Entering into office with a message of peace and detente toward the Muslim world, Obama did not make his decision lightly. Yet in light of the alternative strategies proposed by his inner circle, it appears that the president has chosen a solid course regarding the AfPak campaigns.

“The Forgotten War”: The US Withdrawal from Iraq   INSS Insight

By: Yoel Guzansky So far the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq has proceeded on schedule. At the same time, the uncertainty over whether elections will be held on time, the probability of heightened motivation to launch strategic terrorist attacks around the scheduled date for elections, Kurdish-Arab volatility, and external constraints such as more US soldiers in Afghanistan are liable to cause a situation whereby the continued withdrawal of forces at the present rate would challenge the relative stability achieved in Iraq over the last two years.

EU Recognition of a Palestinian State with Jerusalem as its Capital

by Oded Eran The declaration by EU heads of state on December 8, 2009 about the political process in the Middle East is no cause for anxiety. However, neither should it be dismissed lightly, and we would do well to examine its long term implications.

The Naval Arena in the Struggle against Iran

By Yoel Guzansky The seizure of the ship carrying weapons from Iran to Syria (intended apparently for Hizbollah via Syria) in early November revealed something of the scope of the struggle between Iran and Israel in general and on the high seas in particular, a struggle that is steadily moving upstage.

Israel, the United States, and the Faltering Peace Process

By Zaki Shalom On November 8, 2009, Tom Friedman published an op-ed piece in The New York Times entitled, “Call White House, Ask for Barack” in which he surveys the sorry state of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. In his opinion, currently neither side is really interested in advancing the process towards a permanent settlement.

Crisis in the Palestinian Authority

By Shlomo Brom The failure of the American effort to restart the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians over the final settlement has created a political crisis in the Palestinian Authority.

Iran Rejects the Uranium Deal

By Ephraim Kam Since early October 2009, the talks between Iran and P5+1 (the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany) have focused on the proposal for a circular deal:

A Possible US-Russian Arrangement and Implications for the Middle East

By Zvi Magen We have recently been witness to a new US initiative launched by the Obama administration for dialogue with Russia that affects both the bilateral and global levels.

Chancellor Merkel’s Second Government: Continuity and Change

by Shimon Stein A month after the general elections in Germany on September 27, 2009, the German parliament (Bundestag) convened for its first session, at which time Chancellor Merkel’s second government was sworn in. Merkel completed the coalition negotiations with the government's new partner, the Liberal party, in record time.

The Nuclear Fuel Deal with Iran: Losing Sight of the Broader Picture?

by Emily B. Landau and Ephraim Asculai The emerging nuclear fuel deal between the US, Russia, France, and Iran – whether it is actually implemented or not – is shaping up as another point Iran has scored to fend off international efforts that would cease its uranium enrichment activities.

The Historic Accord between Turkey and Armenia: What Lies Ahead?

By Gallia Lindenstrauss The agreement signed in Zurich on October 10, 2009 between Turkey and Armenia to establish diplomatic relations offers hope that some of the difficult problems in the southern Caucasus may soon be resolved.

The IAEA and Israel

by Ephraim Asculai Israel was one of the founding members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which was established in 1957. At that time there were high hopes for this organization, established as a follow-up to President Eisenhower's vision of Atoms for Peace. It was to be a technical organization, with the objectives to:

The Implications of Iran’s Second Enrichment Plant

Asculai, Ephraim On Friday, September 25, 2009 Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it had a second uranium enrichment plant under construction. Suspicions concerning a parallel, concealed enrichment program were in fact circulating for some time before the announcement. Iran reportedly disclosed the information to the IAEA because it discovered that Western intelligence agencies became aware of this parallel program and wanted to avoid further embarrassment.

Israel and the Gulf States: A Thaw in Relations?

Guzansky, Yoel As part of the attempt to jumpstart Israeli-Palestinian discussions, the American administration has in recent months expended significant effort on persuading different Arab nations, headed by the Gulf states, to make certain gestures towards Israel. While in geopolitical terms the Arab-Israeli arena and the Persian Gulf arena are separate, the Persian Gulf states are nonetheless directly or indirectly involved in the Arab-Israeli conflict and are influenced by Israeli-Palestinian relations.

Israel and Russian Foreign Policy

By Magen, Zvi The international community has of late demonstrated active political engagement in everything concerning the Middle East. There is heightened anticipation of strategic developments, whether political or military.

Iraq’s Reintegration into the Arab World

By Guzansky, Yoel In light of the redeployment of the American forces and despite the current tensions with Syria, Iraq is taking measured steps in order to reintegrate into the Arab world. In this context, Egypt recently named an ambassador to Baghdad, while Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia have signaled that they will post ambassadors to Baghdad when the security situation is stabilized.

Prospective Iran-P5+1 Meeting: Is This Really Progress?

By Landau, Emily B. Last week Iran submitted a "package of proposals for comprehensive and constructive negotiations" to representatives of the P5+1 states: US, Russia, Britain, France, China, and Germany.

Israeli Arabs and Hizbollah’s Covert War against Israel

By Kulick, Amir In August 2009, Rawi Sultani, a young Arab resident of Taibe, was arrested on suspicion of having spied for Hizbollah. According to the indictment, Sultani contacted a Hizbollah agent last year while at a summer camp for nationalist Arab youth in Morocco as a member of the delegation of the Balad party. Sultani told his Hizbollah contact that he works out at the same gym as IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi.

Yemen’s Increasing Importance in the Regional Struggle

By Guzansky, Yoel Far from the public eye and the media, the importance of Yemen as an arena of struggle between regional powers is growing. The primary threat to Yemen in recent years is linked to the ongoing fighting in the country’s northwestern region.

“The Whole Truth”? On Disclosure by the IAEA

- Ephraim Asculai and Emily B. Landau The (likely) penultimate report of outgoing IAEA director general ElBaradei on the nuclear situation in Iran was leaked to the press on Friday, August 28, 2009. The report contains information that Iran is pressing forward with its uranium enrichment activity, while steadily increasing its capacity to do so.