INSS

Supplying Iran with S-300 Systems

The talks between Iran and Russia over the supply of the S-300 defense systems were public knowledge already in 1998, but despite various reports over the years about a contract and the actual supply of the systems, it seems that the contract was only signed in 2006 and was announced officially by both the Iran and Russia in the course of 2007.

The Battle at the Rafah Mosque

The violent clash in Gaza in mid-August at the Ibn Tamiyya mosque in Rafah between Hamas members and a group of al-Qaeda supporters from the Jund Ansar Allah organization, which led to the deaths of more than 20 Palestinians and the wounding of several dozen, has again demonstrated the violence, domination, and mercilessness Hamas exhibits towards its political rivals.

Fatah’s Sixth Convention: An Initial Assessment

-- Shlomo Brom Fatah’s sixth convention, held in Bethlehem on August 4-13, 2009, took place 20 years after the previous convention in Tunisia, which antedated the Madrid conference and the beginning of the Oslo process. For many years Yasir Arafat refrained from convening the forum, even though Fatah's protocol calls for a convention every five years.

Ghajar: Problem and Solution

Eiland, Giora During his recent visit to Ghajar, Foreign Minister Lieberman said that a wall should be built between the two sections of the village, located respectively in Israeli and Lebanese territory. He added that concern for security is the leading consideration in such a move. Before examining the advantages of such a measure, it would be wise to understand how Israel arrived at a situation in which people who consider themselves Syrian, yet carry Israeli identification cards, may be forced to live in Lebanon.

Oslo Revisited: Are the Fundamental Assumptions still Valid?

Shalom, Zaki In a Newsweek interview on June 22, 2009, former prime minister Ehud Olmert stated that in his talks with Mahmoud Abbas, he had made fairly detailed offers towards an Israeli-Palestinian settlement, including:

Red Light, Green Light: Establishing US Levers of Pressure on Iran

Emily B. Landau Statements made by US President Obama and Vice President Biden in the first week of July regarding the US position on Iran elevated in particular the issue of whether a green light had been provided to Israel for an attack on Iran. The immediate question of a possible green light was raised by Biden when he said in an interview from Iraq that the US cannot dictate to another country what they can and cannot do when they determine that they are existentially threatened.

Khaled Mashal’s Response Speech

- Shlomo Brom Adopting the current fashion inaugurated by President Obama with his June 4 Cairo address, Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Mashal joined the list of political leaders delivering major policy speeches in the Middle East. On June 25, Mashal delivered a response to the speeches of Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu. His address presents Hamas’ comprehensive, updated political approach, thus also deciding the internal debate within Hamas between the so-called moderates and the so-called radicals – in favor of the moderates.

The Internal Conflict in Iran

-Ephraim Kam In a number of respects, the current internal conflict in Iran should be the source of much concern to the leaders of the Islamic regime. Demonstrations and riots erupt in Iran every few years, protesting primarily intervention by the regime in the life of the individual or the economic situation. However, in terms of the number of participants, the duration of the disturbances, the number of casualties, and the expression of anger and determination by the participants, recent events exceed all previous episodes since the 1979 revolution.

Lebanon’s Parliamentary Elections

- Amir Kulick The parliamentary elections in Lebanon on June 7, 2009 featured two main electoral camps. One, the "March 14 alliance," comprised the Sunnis, represented by the al-Mustaqbal (“Future Movement”) Party headed by Sa’ad al-Hariri; the Druze – the Progressive-Socialist Party headed by Walid Jumblatt; and various Christian elements, among them the Phalangists and the Lebanese Forces. Opposing them was the "March 8 alliance," composed of the Shiites – Hizbollah and Amal; "The Free Patriotic Movement,” the party of the Christian Maronite politician Michel Aoun; and other small factions such as Sleiman Franjieh’s Christian party from northern Lebanon.

Results of a Public Opinion Survey on National Security Issues

Yehuda Ben Meir The heightened disagreement between the United States and Israel over a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and future settlement activity in the West Bank has come to the fore. This evening the Israeli prime minister is scheduled to deliver a major policy address that is seen as an answer to President Obama's recent Cairo speech. Mr. Netanyahu is expected to outline his policies – including specific plans and proposals – with regard to the peace process as well as other central challenges facing Israel in the political-military arena.

World Passivity in the Face of Advanced Nuclear Challenges

- Ephraim Asculai With the countries of the world looking on, Iran reached its next serious milestone: the accumulation of enough low enriched uranium (LEU) to enable it to further enrich it and produce one Significant Quantity (S.Q.), or 25 kilograms, of high enriched uranium (HEU). This is considered the quantity that is sufficient for the production of one core for an HEU-based nuclear explosive device. The Iranians reached this milestone some months earlier than expected, due mainly to their efficiency in installing and operating a large number of gas centrifuges, the machines that perform the enrichment operation.

Obama’s Speech in Cairo

- Roni Bart President Obama’s June 4 speech in Cairo continued to illustrate his basic approach towards the international arena. In previous speeches, particularly those in Europe, Latin America, and Ankara, the president explicitly or implicitly apologized for past American mistakes, promised to listen and consult rather than issue edicts, and suggested exchanging disagreements and conflicts with cooperation to promote common goals, all of this on the basis of “mutual respect and interest.” Obama also is wont to list popular steps that the United States under his leadership has taken and will take. There is no doubt that his election to the presidency, his approach to international issues, and his rhetoric have measurably improved the international atmosphere surrounding the United States.

The Syrian Stock Exchange: Success Hinges on the United States

Nizan Feldman, INSS Insight No. 97 After three years of repeated delays, Syria is scheduled this week to launch trading on the Damascus stock exchange. Had the authorities advanced the gala opening slightly and had investors been able to raise capital from foreign investors starting a few weeks ago, presumably their shares would have registered nice gains in light of Senator John Kerry’s visit to Damascus.

The IAEA February Reports on Iran and Syria

- Ephraim Asculai, INSS On February 19, 2009, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general (DG) delivered to the constituent membership two periodic reports, on Iran's nuclear program and on the progress in assessing Syria's activities at the bombed site of al-Kibar, prior to September 2007. They both merit comments on their findings. On February 19, 2009, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general (DG) delivered to the constituent membership two periodic reports, on Iran's nuclear program and on the progress in assessing Syria's activities at the bombed site of al-Kibar, prior to September 2007. They both merit comments on their findings.

Obama, Mitchell, Israel, and What Lies Ahead

Roni Bart, INSS President Barack Obama holds a balanced stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and his appointment of former senator George Mitchell as special envoy for peace in the Middle East reflects this. Still, the stance and the envoy are expected to challenge Israel in a way that might cast a pall on the relationship between the two nations.

Operation Cast Lead and the Civilian Front: An Interim Assessment

- Meir Elran Already by the second week of Operation Cast Lead, a number of initial insights about Israel's civilian front have emerged. First, the statistics: In the first six days of the operation, 182 improvised Qassam rockets and 65 standard Grad katyusha rockets were launched against Israel – an average of 41 rockets per day (compared with an average of nine rockets per day in all of 2008). In addition, 277 mortar shells were fired.

The Arab Reaction to Operation Cast Lead

- Ephraim Kam, As Operation Cast Lead unfolded during its second week, demonstrations of outrage and protest against the campaign and the attack on the Palestinians marked the Arab and Muslim worlds. Large street demonstrations, media broadcasts and publications, and government spokespeople and public figures called repeatedly for an immediate end both to the operation and the siege of the Gaza Strip.

The Fighting in Gaza: Where is it Going?

- Shlomo Brom On December 27, 2008, Israel embarked on an extensive offensive against Hamas’ military and government assets in the Gaza Strip in response to Hamas’ decision not to extend the ceasefire and instead expand the scope of its attacks against Israeli civilian targets. Despite the many assessments, including in the media, about the possibility of military action, Hamas was surprised by the timing of the Israeli operation and its extent. In the first stage of the fighting, the Palestinians sustained heavy losses – some 300 dead and 600 wounded – alongside widespread damage to installations, command centers, and arms caches.

Mumbai: Is This New Terror?

Yoram Schweitzer, INSS Insight The murder spree in the streets of Mumbai prompted the question whether we are witnessing a new kind of terror that exceeds the level of murderousness of previous terrorist actions, or was this a matter of terror strategists adhering to basic operational principles in order to achieve a known spectrum of objectives.

So it Really was a Reactor in Syria

- Ephraim Asculai, There are two outstanding issues on the table for the forthcoming IAEA Board of Governors meeting: the nuclear programs of Syria and Iran.