INSS

A New Iranian Missile

- Yiftah Shapir On Wednesday, November 12, the Iranian media reported the test launch of a new missile called the Sejil. According to Iranian defense minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, the missile is two-staged, with both stages powered by solid fuel and a range “close to 2,000 kilometers.” Iran's state-sponsored television stations accompanied the report with pictures of the test.

The Anthrax Envelopes Attack: Reexamining the Biological Threat,

Noam Ophir and David Friedman, INSS The anthrax attack, caused the death of five civilians, prompted widespread hysteria, and disrupted daily life in the United States. Despite unprecedented investigative efforts and the propagation of various theories about who might be responsible for the attack, it remained an unsolved mystery. In the last few weeks there was a significant turning point in the investigation, when it came to light that authorities had identified a new suspect and there was an intention to press charges. However, further developments became moot once the suspect, a scientist at a US army laboratory that engages in developing solutions to biological weapons, committed suicide.

The Assassination of General Mohammed Suleiman

By Amir Kulick, INSS On August 1, 2008, Syrian general Mohammed Suleiman was gunned down on the beach near the Syrian city of Tartous. Only after five days of thunderous silence, Syrian officials, with typical reticence, reported that the general had indeed been assassinated and that an investigation was underway to find the culprits. Meantime, journalists and commentators have proposed different theories regarding the identity of the assassin and the reasons for the attack. The answers to these questions have many – and contradictory – implications: for the Syrian regime, for Israel, and for other regional elements.

Hamas Tightens Its Hold on the Gaza Strip

By Shlomo Brom, Institute for National Security Studies The violent confrontation between Hamas and Fatah that occurred in the Gaza Strip after the July 25th explosion of a car carrying Hamas activists has brought about a significant strengthening of Hamas' control of the Gaza Strip and an almost total elimination of Fatah’s presence there.

Olmert’s Legacy in the Occupied Territories: Strengthening the Settlement Bloc

By, Benn, Aluf Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's legacy vis-à-vis the occupied territories will be a strengthened Israeli hold on the settlement blocs west of the security fence, in particular around Jerusalem. Olmert’s fundamental approach views the security fence as Israel’s de facto border, and is the basis of his decisions regarding new construction in the territories and his positions in negotiations with the Palestinian Authority. “Dividing the land in order to ensure a Jewish majority is the lifeline of Zionism,” Olmert declared when presenting his government to the Knesset in May 2006.

The Gaza Ceasefire: A Political Window of Opportunity?

Anat Kurz, INSS Inisght Both Israel and the Hamas movement hoped the lull in Gaza would temper the domestic criticism in their respective arenas emanating from the ongoing civilian hardships on both sides of the border.

The Belated Message from the IAEA on Iran

Ephraim Asculai, and Emily B. Landau , INSS Insight On May 26, 2008 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) circulated a technical and factual report on Iran, devoid almost entirely of political overtones. The IAEA report gives prominence to the major issue of the day – Iran's unrelenting progress in its uranium enrichment program – but also highlights an additional serious issue of concern: Iran's secret weapons development activities. The unprecedented level of concern included in the report reflects and furthers tendencies that first emerged last February, when new material was handed over to the IAEA regarding Iran's involvement in weaponization studies. On the basis of briefings at the IAEA in this regard, suspicions have increased within the organization that Iran is proceeding with its nuclear development program, and the program could eventually yield nuclear weapons. True, the signs were there long ago; unfortunately, their recognition by the IAEA has come quite late in the day.

Revival for Lebanon or the Beginning of the Shia Crescent?

Amir Kulick, INSS InsightThe recent events in Lebanon are like a play in three acts. In the first act, the pro-Western government chooses to take steps challenging Hizbollah's independent security activity (placing cameras at the airport and planting an internal communications network). In response, on May 7, Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah dispatches his fighters to take control of western Beirut and various areas in the northern and eastern parts of the country.

Hizbollah’s Increased Strength: Risks and Opportunities for Israel

Zaki Shalom, INSS Insight No. 57 One tangible aftermath of the Second Lebanon War and the agreement that concluded it is an increase in Hizbollah's strength. In fact, this agreement increases the possibility of Hizbollah's taking over all or large parts of Lebanon, which entails severe dangers for Israel.

The Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations: What was – and was not – Agreed On

Aluf Benn, INSS Insight No. 56, At the Israeli Presidential Conference "Facing Tomorrow," Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared that real progress has been made in Israel's talks with the Palestinian Authority. According to Olmert, “understandings and agreements regarding highly important matters have been achieved, though some issues are still outstanding.”

Ceasefire in Gaza

Shlomo Brom, INSS Insight No. 55, May 15, 2008 Negotiations toward a ceasefire in Gaza, mediated by Egypt and other channels, have been ongoing for some time. Now, however, Egypt's efforts to convince Hamas and the other armed groups in Gaza to agree to a ceasefire while relinquishing some of their demands have borne fruit.

Assessing Nuclear Activity in Syria and Iran

On April 24, US officials briefed lawmakers on Syria's covert nuclear reactor. They explained their "high confidence" that what was destroyed last September in Syria was in fact a nuclear reactor for the production of plutonium, and that it was built with the long-term and sustained assistance of North Korea. In contrast to this certainty, a central aspect of their estimate regarding Syria's nuclear plans adopted a vaguer tone: when asked whether the material to be produced by the reactor would be used in a nuclear weapons program, the Intelligence officials accorded this only a "low confidence" level.

Syria, the NPT, and the IAEA

Given the official US statements, backed by extraordinary visual evidence, there is little doubt that the Israeli Air Force raid on the night of September 6, 2007 destroyed a building housing a nuclear reactor.

Exchange Rate Policies in the Gulf: A New Challenge to American Preeminence?

Like hundreds of other decisions taken by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries since it was formed 47 years ago, the decision taken two weeks ago not to respond to American urgings to boost oil production came in for heavy criticism by the U.S. administration.

The Devaluation of the National Intelligence Estimate of the Iranian Threat

In December 2007, the American intelligence community published a new assessment of Iran’s nuclear intentions and capabilities. The report stressed two new findings:

The Return of the “Roadmap” – A Shift in the Annapolis Process

During her visit to Israel and the Palestinian Authority in early March, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke about activating the trilateral mechanism headed by US General Charles Frasier to monitor the fulfillment of the Roadmap obligations of both sides. American officials explained that the Administration has not given up hope of reaching agreement on the core issues in the conflict but that it is logical to focus now on a parallel improvement in the situation on the ground. If the reality does not change, they argued, any agreement reached would be purely theoretical.

The Real Choice: Ceasefire or Reoccupation of Gaza

The recent escalation of the military confrontation in the Gaza Strip dramatizes the need to consider alternative strategies in the face of the Gaza challenge, and to choose a strategy that can offer the best chance of achieving the desired objectives.

The Launch of the Iranian Kavoshgar Rocket

On February 4, Iran launched a sounding rocket into space. The launch was part of the inauguration of the Iranian Space Center and received extensive coverage in the Iranian media, which focused on Iran’s intention this summer to launch by its own means a satellite wholly developed by Iranian industry.

The Latest IAEA Report and Iranian Nuclear Weapons Development

The newest and much-anticipated International Atomic Energy Agency report on safeguards activities in Iran was sent to the IAEA Member States on February 22, 2008 and almost immediately leaked to the press. As usual, no one was completely satisfied by it but everyone could find in it something that upholds his or her particular point of view.

What Links Kosovo, Cyprus and Nagorno-Karabakh?

During the week in which Kosovo declared independence, two important elections took place elsewhere, in Cyprus and Armenia. They attracted far less attention than did events in Kosovo, but they are also likely to influence Europe and its neighboring areas.