I could have sworn it wasn't long ago that the media were telling us the Republican Party was in the midst of such a total fiasco, it was collapsing upon itself and it might ultimately fade into oblivion. Why yes. It was about a week ago. We were told that the nomination of Donald Trump was going to do the GOP so much damage that it would cost it control of the House and the Senate, and would cascade all the way down to the state level where governors and state legislatures would also slip away from Republicans.
I could have sworn it wasn't long ago that the media were telling us the Republican Party was in the midst of such a total fiasco, it was collapsing upon itself and it might ultimately fade into oblivion. Why yes. It was about a week ago. We were told that the nomination of Donald Trump was going to do the GOP so much damage that it would cost it control of the House and the Senate, and would cascade all the way down to the state level where governors and state legislatures would also slip away from Republicans.
It was just this side of slipping into the status of a mere regional party - holding sway nowhere but the Deep South - where demography was destiny, and a growing population of minorities and women would guarantee Democratic dominance for generations.
Yeah, about that . . .
Republicans now hold an all-time high of 68 out of 99 state legislative chambers, The Associated Press reported. Republicans also have control of both chambers in 33 states, up from 31.
In Kentucky, Democratic House Speaker Greg Stumbo was ousted along with 15 other Democratic incumbents, effectively ending 95 years of control of the state house.
With the state Senate already in Republican control, Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, the state’s third Republican governor since World War II, has much more leeway.
Similarly, in Iowa, Republicans won control of the state Senate and won two more seats in the state House, where they already held the majority. Iowa’s Democratic Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal was defeated in the wave.
Republicans also won full control of the Minnesota legislature, by winning the state Senate. They already held the state House.
What happened?
Well first of all, let's start here: The whole thing was more about Democrats and the media wanting it to be true than about it really being true. Even before Tuesday, the GOP had 29 governors and 31 state legislatures. It's stronger today, but it wasn't weak going in.
Also, to whatever extent Democrats did have a structural advantage, they found there are limits to it. You can't nominate a candidate who is widely disliked and universally recognized as corrupt and dishonest, and expect to win anyway just because of demographics. You can't spend eight years shoving an ideological agenda down the throats of an unwilling populace and expect them to just keep re-electing you because of your data on minority voters and your confidence that the media will help you out.
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Surprising number of Hispanics, Latinos and blacks voted for Trump
There's also this: Demography is not necessarily destiny. As the minority population grows, it will also become more diverse in thought. We saw the start of that already last week as a surprising number of Hispanics, Latinos and blacks voted for Trump. As a community gains numbers, it will also grow in its influence and people will start thinking for themselves.
As for the emergence of a larger population of younger people, news flash: They won't stay young forever. As they have to get real jobs and support themselves, a lot of them will become more conservative. And some of them will start out that way. Not every young person is looking for free college and legal marijuana. Some of them are actually responsible. And more of them will become that way in subsequent years.
But in the end, nothing matters more than this: When policies are clearly not working, people will want them to change. When health care is a fiasco, and terrorists are ascendant, and Russia is on the march, and the national debt is $20 trillion, and labor force participation is at its lowest rate since the Carter Administration, people will want different policies.
And if they can't get them from Democrats, then some Democrats will vote Republican. And some Democrats will becomeRepublicans.
The nature of American politics does not lend itself to one party's permanent ascendance and the other's utter destruction. I remember back in the early '90s thinking there may never be another Democrat president - so thoroughly had the Democrats been humiliated during the Reagan-Bush years.
Oops.
Politics doesn't work that way. The Republicans won't always be in the dominant position they're in now, and but the GOP is very far from fading into irrelevance like the Democrats and the media wanted to think it was. Quite the opposite, if you look not only at Washington but throughout the country, it's the GOP that is now in the driver's seat.
Funny how things change, and how quickly it happens, eh?
