We're probably getting a little ahead of ourselves here, since there are often predictions of this nature that turn out wrong. And the second quarter still has a month to go. But look what the Atlanta Federal Reserve thinks is going to happen:
The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a 4.0 percent annualized pace in the second quarter based on the latest data on factory activity, construction and consumer spending released this week, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed on Thursday.
The latest second-quarter gross domestic product estimate was faster than the 3.8 percent clip calculated on Tuesday, the Atlanta Fed said.
Obama's relentless assault on the business community via lawsuits, investigations and unionization campaigns is finally over
Keep in mind, of course, that this follows a very weak first quarter in which GDP growth was only 1.2 percent. And also keep in mind that very little of the Trump economic agenda has actually been implemented yet. We have no tax cuts or tax reform. We have no ObamaCare repeal. We tend to credit or blame presidents for everything that happens under their watch, and often they have little or nothing to do with what happens.
But the beginning of the Trump Administration has changed some significant things.
For starters, Obama's relentless assault on the business community via lawsuits, investigations and unionization campaigns is finally over. Also, Trump and the Republican Congress have been very aggressive about repealing Obama regulations. There are an awful lot of them, and they've only just begun the process, but it has certainly signaled to the business community that the new administration is serious about getting out of business's way and letting people make money.
Also, Trump's decision to approve the Keystone XL pipeline and reverse the ban on drilling in the Atlantic and Arctic oceans signals that the U.S. will be serious about pursuing its own domestic energy production during Trump's tenure. His decision yesterday to pull out of the Paris Climate Accord, while too recent to have really moved this number, signals the same thing.
Out here in the real world, people are doing fine in spite of the endless freakout that seems to be going on in Washington
Surely there are many factors at work here that have nothing to do with government policy. A weak quarter is often followed by a strong one because of pent-up demand, or because people who had been cautious for a period now have more money to spend.
And even Obama had a few rare quarters in which GDP growth topped 4.0 percent.
But they were very rare in an administration that averaged only 2.0 percent annualized growth, and never had even one year that reached 3.0 percent. Obama's was the weakest recovery in history, and it's easy to see how his own policies led to the weakness.
One strong quarter - again, if it happens - does not prove that Trump is going to bring us an economic turnaround. But it's a hell of a nice way to start, and it also shows that out here in the real world, people are doing fine in spite of the endless freakout that seems to be going on in Washington.
We're probably getting a little ahead of ourselves here, since there are often predictions of this nature that turn out wrong. And the second quarter still has a month to go. But look what the Atlanta Federal Reserve thinks is going to happen:
