You might have heard that there was a referendum in Venezuela this past weekend. You might have been pleasantly surprised. Hey! Democracy in a nation ruled by a socialist dictator! Sounds like progress.
It's not really. Socialist President Nicolas Maduro is set to stand for re-election next year. Given the horrendous state of things in the country, he would lose and lose badly. He knows this. So Maduro wants to rewrite the constitution so he can simply remain in power. The referendum was a strictly non-binding vote - mainly put on by the political opposition - that allowed the public to weigh in on the idea of Maduro rewriting the constitution.
Unsurprisingly, Venezuelans hate the idea:
Opposition activists said more than 7 million Venezuelans participated, and that in excess of 98% opposed Maduro’s plan for a new assembly charged with rewriting the constitution.
Still, it seemed unlikely that the vote would shift the points of view of many in this long-polarized nation. Government backers denounced the balloting as a public relations scheme meant to sap support from Maduro’s embattled administration, which still has substantial support among poor and working-class Venezuelans.
A celebratory mood seemed to dominate as government opponents gathered from early in the morning to cry, “Freedom!” raise the national flag and cast ballots.
“I’m poor but not stupid,” said Carmen Garcia, a restaurant cook and 33-year-old mother of three who voted against the government. “We know that the government doesn’t work, that they only use us to remain in power, to make us poorer all the time.”
The excerpt is a little misleading in that it makes it sound like "government backers" represent some significant portion of the population. They don't. Even most one-time Chavistas have had it with Maduro and his socialist regime. That's why you're hearing about nonstop unrest and demonstrations in the street, which are being met by violence at the hands of government-sponsored thugs.
These same thugs actually had the nerve a few weeks ago to converge on Venezuela's legislative building and rough up opposition politicians. This is what Maduro does. He doesn't care.
He doesn't care about this referendum either. The public's opinion is completely irrelevant. If he can find a way to get around the existing constitution's requirement that he stand for re-election, he will do so. Venezuela's Supreme Court consists mainly of Maduro cronies, and as recently as May they went so far as to sideline the Legislature entirely - if only for a few days before the outcry became too great - and essentially eliminate any roll for the opposition.
Not that there's much of a role anyway. Venezuela has sadly become a textbook example of what happens when government decides it can control the means of production better than the private sector. It has not nationalized every industry, but it has exercised enough legislative and administrative control that the private sector can neither set its own prices nor make its own decisions about how to utilize their raw materials or how to distribute the products they make.
The streets are not safe. Essential goods are scarce. Inflation is out of control. Welcome to socialism. Implement it fully and it turns out this way every single time. And when the government has seized control of enough of the private sector, there is no one left to resist when it decides to rewrite the rules so the current president can stay in power as long as he likes.
I think Maduro is going to fall from power before long. A hated dictator can only maintain control as long as the people respect and fear him, and Venezuelans don't respect Maduro. They think he's a corrupt, inept clown. But he could have left power peacefully, and with dignity, by respecting the nation's constitution and standing for re-election next year. He's not willing to do that, so the manner in which he will fall from power is probably going to be something else.
Something much uglier. But not as ugly as the situation he has foisted on his countrymen.
