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Facts are stubborn things

Mother Jones claims voter ID laws cost Hillary Wisconsin, but its own argument undermines the case



Mother Jones, voter ID laws, Hillary ,Wisconsin Here's a scenario for you: A woman wants to vote, but three days before the election she loses her driver's license. She shows up at the polls without ID, and they let her cast a provisional ballot, with the understanding that she has to return to show some sort of ID within three days in order for her vote to count. She is too busy, she says, and she never comes back. Her vote doesn't count.
Now, do you feel sympathetic? It's a struggle for me. I've lost my driver's license. I always figure out where it is in a matter of an hour or two, not three days. And while I understand it can be hard to get time off work and so forth, if you're really determined to do something, you find a way to do it. But this very scenario represents the poster woman for what Mother Jones claims is the reason Hillary lost Wisconsin. Supposedly more than 40,000 people endured similar scenarios, and because Wisconsin had enacted voter ID laws since the previous election, this is supposed to explain the roughly 23,000-vote margin by which Donald Trump won the state:
After the election, registered voters in Milwaukee County and Madison’s Dane County were surveyed about why they didn’t cast a ballot. Eleven percent cited the voter ID law and said they didn’t have an acceptable ID; of those, more than half said the law was the “main reason” they didn’t vote. According to the study’s author, University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist Kenneth Mayer, that finding implies that between 12,000 and 23,000 registered voters in Madison and Milwaukee—and as many as 45,000 statewide—were deterred from voting by the ID law. “We have hard evidence there were tens of thousands of people who were unable to vote because of the voter ID law,” he says. “This particular election was very important to me. I felt like the right to vote was being stripped away from me.” Its impact was particularly acute in Milwaukee, where nearly two-thirds of the state’s African Americans live, 37 percent of them below the poverty line. Milwaukee is the most segregated city in the nation, divided between low-income black areas and middle-class white ones. It was known as the “Selma of the North” in the 1960s because of fierce clashes over desegregation. George Wallace once said that if he had to leave Alabama, “I’d want to live on the south side of Milwaukee.”

Neil Albrecht, Milwaukee’s election director, believes that the voter ID law and other changes passed by the Republican Legislature contributed significantly to lower turnout. Albrecht is 55 but seems younger, with bookish tortoise-frame glasses and salt-and-pepper stubble. (“I looked 12 until I became an election administrator,” he joked.) At his office in City Hall with views of the Milwaukee River, Albrecht showed me a color-coded map of the city’s districts, pointing out the ones where turnout had declined the most, including Anthony’s. Next to his desk was a poster that listed “Acceptable Forms of Photo ID.” “I would estimate that 25 to 35 percent of the 41,000 decrease in voters, or somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000 voters, likely did not vote due to the photo ID requirement,” he said later. “It is very probable that between the photo ID law and the changes to voter registration, enough people were prevented from voting to have changed the outcome of the presidential election in Wisconsin.”
So let me see if I have this straight: Between 10,000 and 15,000 voters failed to vote because they had lost their driver's licenses, or never had any, and couldn't find the time to get a state ID or take advantage of any of the other options the law provides in order for them to be able to vote. And every single one of these people would have voted for Hillary had they managed to meet the requirements. Several reactions to that:
  1. Bolshevik.
  2. If true, Hillary voters are trainwrecks.
  3. Republicans never lose their licenses? Republicans aren't busy? Do these guys think Trump voters are all independently wealthy and don't have to ask the boss for an hour off to run to the Secretary of State's office to deal with the provisional ballot question?

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Or are Trump voters just more responsible and less likely to lose things? Yet let's say this scenario is 100 percent accurate: It still doesn't add up to enough voters to explain Trump's margin of more than 23,000 votes, nor does it give Trump the election because even if Hillary had won Wisconsin, Trump would have still had 296 electoral votes. You only need 270 to win. Trump only needed to win one of the four erstwhile blue states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to put him over the top. He won all three. Michigan was closer, and we've had voter ID for some time now. The only election regularities we had occurred in the city of Detroit, where they appeared to be double-counting votes for Hillary. And Trump won Pennsylvania by nearly 80,000 votes. One of the most common arguments liberals make against voter ID is that's likely to disproportionately affect minorities. Why are liberals so racist? The requirements of voter ID laws are not difficult to comply with, and you'd have to be completely disorganized in your life not to be able to do what the law asks of you. Why do liberals think minorities will have more problems with this than other people? Why do they think Democrat voters will have more problems with this than Republican voters? If you can't keep track of your driver's license, or find your way to the Secretary of State to get a state-issued ID, chances are you don't manage your life very well. And according to Democrats, that makes you the type of person likely to vote for them. I guess Democrats don't think too highly of their own voters. None which changes the fact that Trump won these states not because of voter ID laws, but because Hillary may be the worst presidential nominee in the history of this country.

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Dan Calabrese——

Dan Calabrese’s column is distributed by HermanCain.com, which can be found at HermanCain

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