By Warner Todd Huston ——Bio and Archives--December 31, 2011
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If Paul is to have any backers at all at the state convention, it will only happen if [his] campaign successfully mobilizes its supporters to constitute a majority of the caucusers at a majority of the precincts in at least one county. If Paul’s 25% support is spread evenly across the state, he will have no delegates at the Iowa state convention and no delegates from Iowa in Tampa. This outcome would not be the result of a grand establishment conspiracy against Ron Paul. It would be a reflection of how Paul polarizes the Republican electorate. While Santorum, Perry, Bachmann, and Gingrich supporters may disagree about the relative merits of their candidates, they are all likely to agree with each other and differ strongly with Paul supporters on issues like Iran, Israel, drug legalization, and whether 9/11 was an “inside job.”Seem unlikely? Bates begs to differ. After all, this happened in Oklahoma in 2008 when Paul’s delegates were shut out by more mainstream GOP operatives that prevented his representatives from getting any traction at the Sooner State’s GOP convention that year. Bates wraps up saying, “Ron Paul may “win” the Iowa caucuses straw poll by a narrow margin with a tiny plurality, and that result may boost fundraising and volunteer activity, but it won’t boost his delegate count at all.” Please do read all of Bates’ analysis because he has some points we all need to remember when looking at all this Hawkeye hooplah.
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Warner Todd Huston’s thoughtful commentary, sometimes irreverent often historically based, is featured on many websites such as Breitbart.com, among many, many others. He has also written for several history magazines, has appeared on numerous TV and radio shows.
He is also the owner and operator of Publius’ Forum.