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EDITORIAL

Reality polls

September 15, 2003

The Dalton McGuinty Ontario Liberals provide a graphic lesson in political polls 101.

Within days of the election call, polls indicated that support for the Liberals had all but evaporated.

Going into the election, polls suggested that the Liberals had a double-digit lead, and an EKOS poll in April showed them 19 percentage points ahead.

It is interesting to note that in early September, 14.3 percent of voters were still undecided.

Politicians make much of pre-election polls, and the Liberals were busy spreading the word that the Progressive Conservatives didn’t have a chance.

But Ernie Eves must have thought he had a crack at winning the election when he called for an Oct. 2nd election day.

Could it have anything to do with these irrefutable facts? "Ontario is outperforming the Canadian, U.S., and world economies?"

After a summer of SARS, worries about the return of West Nile virus, and a major power blackout, Ontarians are looking for stability, and only a strong economy ensures the quality services they have come to expect.

Polls have a way of evaporating, and some will recall that it was only the Saturday before election when a man called Michael Harris was suddenly leading the polls in 1995, after all but a Liberal monopoly on polls.

Toronto mayoral candidate Barbara Hall is also riding high in pre-election polls. In spite of her campaign’s boast of being a certain winner, and Radio CFRB’s ridiculous aired suggestion that she should be crowned now instead of waiting for Nov. 10, there’s no mystery to Hall’s lead in the polls. She was, thanks to the dubious Friends of Barbara Hall campaign, off the mark one full year before the municipal campaign got underway.

The only poll that truly matters is the one where Ontarians and Torontonians place their checkmarks on the candidates of their choice.