September 15, 2003
Since the provincial election call on September 2, the long awaited campaign to lead the next Ontario government has been in full swing. The Liberals had a large lead in the polls going into the election, but within the first few days, the Tories closed the gap.
The Liberals, whose support has often been described as a mile wide and an inch thin, also had large leads going into the 1990 and 1995 campaigns. In 1990, the governing Liberals spent the first half of the campaign running hard against the Tories, only to realize two weeks before voting day that the NDP were the real threat. Caught off guard, Liberal premier David Peterson then lost it, saying that babies were going to die if Bob Rae and the New Democrats came into the office.
When the governing NDP decided to go to the polls in 1995, the Liberals again had a large lead. The thousands of voters who voted for the NDP five years before, as a form of protest against the Peterson government, weren’t going to make that mistake again. Mike Harris was given almost no chance to win, until Liberal leader Lyn McLeod blew the lead with her "shout at your spouse, lose your house" policy. While that went over well in extreme feminist circles, it did not resonate with the mushy middle that constitutes the Liberals core support.
What is unusual in this election campaign is that the Tories surged in support to run neck and neck with the Liberals within a few days of the election call. As the unofficial campaign has been going on for months, there were no policy surprises. Nor did the Liberals make any major gaffes during the early days of the campaign. The only explanation for the Tory surge is that the voters are concerned with the issue of leadership.
The campaign is essentially a two-way race. NDP leader Howard Hampton’s policies of nationalizing everything from Ontario Hydro to automobile insurance is not likely to gain much support, other than from those whose loyalty already lies with the socialist party. And his photo-ops, such as being filmed outside the home of wealthy industrialist, Peter Monk, while complaining about how much Monk would gain from the Conservatives’ proposal to lower property taxes for seniors, were fun to watch, but really only preached to the converted. If Ontarians really liked this type of street theatre, the Ontario Coalition Against Poverty would form the next government. And Hampton’s initial campaign speeches, warning voters that they would die from tainted meat, tainted water, and a bunch of other tainted stuff, was eerily reminiscent of former Liberal leader David Peterson’s last desperate attempt to hold on to office.
Ernie Eves had the opportunity to show leadership when "Blackout 2003" occurred on August 14. By attending daily briefings, where Eves showed that he was in control and knew the exact amount of energy that Ontario had at any given time, did a lot to propel his party’s spike in the ratings. Not only was the Ontario Premier given the opportunity to show his leadership skills, but he is also the recipient of a couple of lucky breaks. The economy of the province is important to most voters, and Ontario’s economy has been in the dumper since the first outbreak of SARS last spring. But it would be suicide for the opposition to try to pin that on the provincial government. Ontario Hydro was a hot button issue (and still is with the hapless NDP) but any attempt to blame the recent blackout on the Eves’ government, when the problem arose in northern Ohio would also be dangerous for the opposition Liberals to try.
Ernie Eves has also received some help from an unexpected source--the pro-Liberal mainstream media. The media have made a big deal about the so-called American type attack ads that the Conservatives are running. The major criticism of these ads is that they say: "Dalton McGuinty--he’s still not up to the job." Saying McGuinty wasn’t up to the job gave the much hated, much aligned former Tory leader, Mike Harris, a second straight majority government. And for every "Dalton’s still not up to the job" ad that the Tories pay for, they get that fact repeated at least three times by the media who air the message along with the criticism.
Leadership is the only issue that can explain the Tories early surge in the polls. Barring a large gaffe, or another unforeseen circumstance, the PCs are on the road to forming the next government.